Tag Archives: 2024

 – by New Deal democrat Recently I have paid much more attention to the ISM services index. That’s because, since the turn of the Millennium, manufacturing’s share of the economy has contracted to the point where even a significant decline in that index has not translated into an economy-wide recession, as for example in 2015-16.  When we use an economically weighted average of the non-manufacturing index (75%) with the manufacturing index...

 – by New Deal democrat As usual we start the month with two important reports on the leading sectors of  manufacturing and construction. First, the ISM manufacturing index showed contraction yet again, with the headline number “less negative” by way of increasing from 46.8 to 47.2, and the more leading new orders subindex declining sharply by -2.8 from 47.4 to 44.6: Including August, here are the last sis months of both the headline...

by Prof. Heather Cox Richardson The Democratic National Committee today released a platform that lays out the history of the last four years and explains how and why the Biden-Harris administration has oriented the United States government toward ordinary Americans. It is in many ways a snapshot of the United States of America in this moment. At the most basic level, it shows how rapidly the political world is changing. Approved on July 16, five...

A bit of The Atlantic’s Anne Lowrey on high prices and increasing prices. The article says there are few or great tools a president has at their disposable. I beg to differ on Annie’s comment. One of those tools a President Kamala has is take the issue to the citizenry making the case many of the high prices do not need to be. They are artificially high because industry can control supply which can drive prices up. This is no surprise the nation...

AB: That the US is still playing around with costly old technology and pollutes the environment is unbelievable. In the end, it will come back and haunt the later generations as energy and resources become more expensive. Ford Motor Co. is ramping up production of its F-Series Super Duty pickups with a $3 billion investment to keep up with the explosive demand for the trucks. The Detroit automaker plans put around $2.3 billion of that...

 – by New Deal democrat The second point of economic data released this morning, retail sales, were also positive. On a nominal basis, retail sales in July rose 1.0%. After adjusting for inflation, they rose 0.8% to the highest level so far this year. The below graph norms both real retail sales (dark blue) and the similar measure of real personal consumption of goods (light blue) to 100 as of just before the pandemic: Since the end of...

FTC to Launch Inquiry into Higher Grocery Prices by Lucille Barilla @ Retail Wire FTC Chair Lina M. Khan highlighted the FTC’s recent work to stop corporate lawbreaking that raises prices for Americans, including uncovering evidence of corporate conduct that may raise the price of gas, grocery prices, working to lower the cost of many asthma inhalers to just $35 out-of-pocket, and making it easier for Americans to cancel online subscriptions...

Credit conditions in Q2 improved, and are typical of an economy having come *out* of a recession, not going in to one  – by New Deal democrat The Senior Loan Officer Survey, the premier quarterly measure of the loose- or tight-ness of bank lending, was published yesterday for Q2. And since lending conditions are a long leading indicator for the economy, and several of the metrics contained in this release have a good and lengthy track record,...

July jobs report: Establishment survey weak (but still positive), Household survey (even more) recessionary  – by New Deal democrat In the past few months, my focus has been on whether jobs gains are most consistent with a “soft landing,” i.e., no further deterioration, or whether deceleration is ongoing. In the last several months I have also pointed out that the Household Survey is probably understating growth because of its large undercount...

Repeat home sales were benign in May, forecast continued downtrend in shelter CPI in months ahead  – by New Deal democrat First, a brief administrative note: I am traveling this week, so posting is going to be sporadic and delayed. I’ll get to this morning’s JOLTS report later today or tomorrow morning. With that out of the way, let’s take a look at repeat home sales prices. To reiterate my focus, in the housing data I am looking at any...