Tag Archives: Economic Releases

The US is about to send a lot more oil into an already oversupplied world market The U.S. is about to boost its status as a major oil exporter. New pipelines are coming online to transport oil from a bottleneck in the Permian Basin to the Gulf Coast where it can be shipped to the world. The U.S. is turning the Gulf Coast into a major export hub, and that could one day make U.S. crude an international benchmark, according to Citigroup’s Ed Morse. Citigroup says U.S. oil...

This is before the latest round of tariffs which will only make things worse: Up a bit for the month, but still working it’s way lower. Also, the chart is not inflation adjusted, so in real terms it’s far below prior ‘peaks’: Growth of home prices is slowing: Speaks for itself: Highlights Deep contraction in production pulled down the national activity index in July to minus 0.36 versus an upward revised 0.03 in June in what now is a rare gain for this index. The 3-month...

It’s all in contraction: A slump in freight shipping flashes warning signs for economy as US-China trade war rages Air freight volumes fell nearly 5% in June, the eighth consecutive month of declines.Freight airlines say demand has dropped amid the worsening trade war between the U.S. and China.Economists and executives are trying to assess the health of the economy amid conflicting signals.

Powell’s getting the perfect opening to resign: Trump tweets: ‘Who is our bigger enemy,’ Fed Chairman Powell or Chinese President Xi? Serious dementia- hopefully enough for Pence to pull the plug: Stocks fell to their lows of the day on Friday after President Donald Trump ordered in a series tweets that U.S. companies find alternatives to their operations in China. Trumps tariffs and related policy taking it’s toll globally: Mexico Economy Contracts for 1st Time since 2009...

Employment growth has been revised substantially lower. Note that one of the inputs used for estimating monthly employment is data from the weekly jobless claims report, which I had suggested would be misleading due to claims being made substantially harder to get over the last several years. Employment: Preliminary annual benchmark revision shows downward adjustment of 501,000 jobs The BLS released the preliminary annual benchmark revision showing 501,000 fewer payroll...

Highlights The surge in refinancing is easing as the related index, after spiking 37.0 and 12.0 percent in the two prior weeks, rose only 0.4 percent in the August 16 week. Yet rates did move lower in the week, down another 3 basis points to 3.90 percent for conventional 30-year loans and down nearly 20 basis points over the past month. Mortgage-related gains for the purchase index have been much more subdued with this index up 0.4 percent in the latest week and the...

Japan Exports Fall for 8th Month Exports from Japan dropped 1.6 percent from a year earlier to JPY 6.64 trillion in July 2019, the eighth straight month of decrease and compared to market expectations of 2.2 percent fall, amid weakening global demand and the US-China trade dispute. An Economic Warning Sign: RV Sales Are Slipping Elkhart, Ind., is flashing a warning sign that a recession could be just ahead. Capital of the country’s recreational-vehicle industry, the...

Still elevated: Not looking good: Starts down and rolling over, permits up for the month but still trending lower, as per the charts: Highlights A slow turn upward is the indication from a mixed but still positive housing starts and permits report for July, headlined by a much lower-than-expected rate for starts and a much higher-than-expected rate for permits. Starts, at a total 1.191 million annual rate, were dragged lower by a sharp fall for multi-family homes to a...

Tariffs doing their thing to the US economy: Highlights A jump in utility output couldn’t save industrial production in July which, pressured by contraction in both manufacturing and also mining, came in near the low end of Econoday’s consensus range with a 0.2 percent decline. Utilities, where production is affected by the weather and where results are often volatile, jumped 3.1 percent in the month following a 3.3 percent June decline. Outside of this component, however,...

German Economy Contracts in Q2 as Exports Fall Germany’s gross domestic product contracted by a seasonally-adjusted 0.1 percent on quarter in the three months to June 2019, following a 0.4 percent expansion in the previous period and matching market expectations, a preliminary estimate showed. Net external demand contributed negatively to the GDP, mainly due to a slump in exports, while fixed capital formation in construction also declined. China Industrial Output: Growth...