Tag Archives: Hot Topics

 – by New Deal democrat With this week’s inflation report for April, we can update several measures of the real economic status of average American workers, as well as their forecast for further job and economic gains. First, here is real average hourly wages for nonsupervisory workers. In April, nominal average wages increased 0.2%. Since consumer inflation increased 0.3%, real nonsupervisory wages declined -0.1%, the third monthly decline in...

I was a graduate student in a STEM program when Reagan was elected and the Laffer curve was used to justify tax cuts. The problem that immediately stood out to me at the time was that neither the ordinate nor the abscissa in the Laffer graph had scales, so it was impossible to assess where, exactly, the inflection point occurred. Based on the symmetrical drawing, we’re meant to infer that a 50% tax rate is the point after which government revenue...

 – by New Deal democrat This morning, I pointed out that manufacturing production is -1.8% below its 2022 high and may be in a slightly declining trend. Which means that added attention has to be paid to whether the other leading production sector, construction, is holding up.  Instead, this morning brought the first sustained evidence that housing units under construction, the “real” economic measure of the residential building sector, which...

I will probably add a topic of my own choice. you do bot have to follow it.

 – by New Deal democrat The Bonddad Blog Here is today’s update on one of my favorite indicators: retail sales. In April they were unchanged on a nominal basis. Adjusted for inflation they declined -0.3% for the month. They are also down -6.2% from their 2021 peak and -2.9% since January 2023: On a YoY basis, they have also returned to the negative side, down -0.3% (note two graphs below adds 0.3% to show at the zero line): Here is...

 – by New Deal democrat First, a programming note: I’ll post about retail sales later today. Consumer inflation in April continued essentially to be an interplay between shelter and gas prices, with a side helping of auto insurance and repairs. During late 2022 and early 2023, shelter was still accelerating or steady at a high rate of inflation, while gas prices were falling. Beginning in late 2023, the dynamic reversed, as shelter inflation...

 – by New Deal democrat Tomorrow and Thursday a plethora of data will be released, on consumer inflation and spending, production, housing, and jobless claims. In the meantime today we got a chance to look at upstream pressures on inflation. And those upstream pressures do seem to be building slightly, reflecting a strong economy with full employment. Commodity prices increased 0.9%. These are very volatile, so this was not particularly out...

The old man knew what it was. At first, he hoped to wait until tomorrow. That wasn’t meant to be. He had to go now, and his regular Doctor was too far away; especially at the time of day. The nearest Emergency Room (E.R.) it was. By this time, he could barely walk, but felt that he was alright to drive. The walk from the parking garage to the hospital front entry took all he had. There, the security guy told him that he couldn’t go through to the...

Weekly Indicators for May 6 – 10 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. The majority of short leading and coincident indicators continue to show strength rather than weakness. This week it was commodity prices’ turn to show that the global economy is getting stronger. As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you up to the virtual moment as to the economic data, and reward me with...

 – by New Deal democrat I’ve written two posts earlier this week delving into the big divergence between the Establishment Survey portion of the Employment Report, which shows moderate growth, and the Household Survey, which is most consistent with a recession already having started. At any given time, some data will be positive and some will be negative. That’s why I follow a whole series of reports with longer term proven reliability. Most of...