Tag Archives: Hot Topics

With sales near 25 year lows, the huge divergence between the existing and new home markets continues  – by New Deal democrat The drastic bifurcation between the new and existing home markets continues. Existing home sales fell to 4.04 million annualized in August, the lowest level of the entire past 10+ years except for last December and January. In fact, with the additional exception of a number of months during the great home bust during and...

Open Thread: NPs and PAs are Handling Increasingly More Primary Care Visits, Medscape, Avery Hurt “Healthcare Primary Care visits to NPs and PAs, also known as advanced practice providers, have been rising in recent years compared to doctor visits, according to the latest studies. The proportion of Medicare visits that NPs and PAs delivered nearly doubled in the 7-year period 2013-2019 (14% in 2013 to 26% in 2019), according to research published...

Initial jobless claims: unresolved seasonality obscures cautionary YoY comparisons  – by New Deal democrat For the last few weeks, I have been highlighting that there is likely some unresolved post-pandemic seasonality in the initial claims numbers. That certainly looked like the case this week, as a sharp decline mirrored a similar sharp decline 52 weeks ago. To wit: initial claims declined -20,000 to 201,000, the lowest number since...

Using the stock market and unemployment as an easy and timely coincident recession indicator  – by New Deal democrat My fellow forecaster Bob Dieli has a measure he calls “DeltaDelta,” basically an average of the YoY% change in the stock market and the unemployment rate (which hopefully he won’t mind me mentioning here). It called to mind that occasionally in the past I have noted that a YoY decline in stock prices is a yellow flag for a...

A few years back, my chairman was a big enthusiast of NFTs (nonfungible tokens). In one conversation I recall, I pointed to a picture of the founding chair of the department and suggested he could digitize it and sell it to alumni as an NFT. He said he thought that was a good idea. When I laughed, he said “I’m not joking.” I replied: “That’s what I’m afraid of.”NFTs have always been an example of The Greater Fool Theory of investing, which holds that...

Timothy Snyder is the Richard C. Levin Professor of History at Yale University, a permanent fellow at the Institute for Human Sciences in Vienna and an expert on Russian and Eastern European history. Yesterday, he narrated an essay on his subscription-only Substack site “Thinking about . . . “ on the occasion of Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s visit to the US and expression of gratitude for UN support. Snyder believes that we should be thanking Ukranians....

The long awaited downturn in multi-family construction may finally have happened  – by New Deal democrat With the relative fading of manufacturing in importance to the US economy, the leading construction sector has assumed even greater importance. And the most important data about construction are the leading, and long leading, data about residential housing construction. To give a little additional framework, typically the first data to...

This is Part 1 of a three-part story of how politics and delays backed by commercial interests and business sponsor groups delayed and eventually killed a bill meant to aid Ohio citizens. Kind of a forerunner to what may happen if Congress ever promotes a bill for healthcare-for-all. I will post the other two parts over the next two days, We sought a cause of death for HB 135. We found it … and something far bigger, WSYX, Darrel Rowland Part 1...

Unionize America sea to shining sea — do away with the biggest threat to democracy — with one easy federal labor law stroke. On Today’s Page (ontodayspage.blogspot.com), Denis Drew. Denis Drew has a commentary unions and federal Labor Law. Conjuring up a potential labor market where all businesses are family owned and family operated. Where no outside labor is hired and prices of goods and services are set at the highest amount families...

General Disclaimer: I don’t know what I am writing about. I am an economist not an electical engineer. This should go without saying, but just in case, remember that I don’t know what I am typing about. Radar is used to determine where airplanes are. One use is air traffic control for civil aviation — the airplanes cooperate. Another is military — hostile aircraft do not cooperate. First in civil aviation, the system is far removed from...