Tag Archives: Hot Topics

Jobless claims: a good example of why my forecasting discipline demands a confirmed trend  – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims for the last week of July rose 6,000 to 227,000. The 4 week average decreased -5,500 to 228,250. Continuing claims, with a one week lag, rose 21,000 to 1.7 million: The YoY% change is much more important for forecasting purposes. There, initial claims were up 4.1%, the 4 week average up 5.8%, and continuing...

This is an abbreviated version of a Canadian trial which examines whether eliminating out-of-pocket costs would improve the health of people taking the medications by making drugs less costly. The greater impact was amongst lower income participants who may not take drugs as prescribed to lengthen a refill timetable. The elimination of out-of-pocket medication costs resulted in lower and reduced total health spending by a median of $1641 and a mean...

This is an abbreviated version of a Canadian trial which examines whether eliminating out-of-pocket costs would improve the health of people taking the medications by making drugs less costly. The greater impact was amongst lower income participants who may not take drugs as prescribed to lengthen a refill timetable. The elimination of out-of-pocket medication costs resulted in lower and reduced total health spending by a median of $1641 and a mean...

June’s JOLTS report: slow progress towards a new equilibrium  – by New Deal democrat Yesterday’s JOLTS report for June captured a labor market that continues to move towards a new equilibrium, mainly via a gradual decline in job openings compared with labor availability. In other words, for the umpteenth time, “deceleration.” Job openings and actual hires both declined to new 2+ year lows, and voluntary quits also declined to just above a 2+...

June’s JOLTS report: slow progress towards a new equilibrium  – by New Deal democrat Yesterday’s JOLTS report for June captured a labor market that continues to move towards a new equilibrium, mainly via a gradual decline in job openings compared with labor availability. In other words, for the umpteenth time, “deceleration.” Job openings and actual hires both declined to new 2+ year lows, and voluntary quits also declined to just above a 2+...

Manufacturing and construction give very mixed signals to start Second Half 2023 data  – by New Deal democrat As usual, the month’s data started out with the ISM manufacturing report for last month, and construction spending for the month before last. Additionally, I am going to take a look at motor vehicle production, because I think it is unusually important right now. Manufacturing contracted for about the 10th month in a row in July,...

Manufacturing and construction give very mixed signals to start Second Half 2023 data  – by New Deal democrat As usual, the month’s data started out with the ISM manufacturing report for last month, and construction spending for the month before last. Additionally, I am going to take a look at motor vehicle production, because I think it is unusually important right now. Manufacturing contracted for about the 10th month in a row in July,...

AB: This a good coverage on healthcare in the US as compared to other countries. It is long. It also has many charts and graphs rather than words. This is why I posted this at Angry Bear. It is easy to grasp the implications. U.S. Health Care from a Global Perspective, 2022, Commonwealth Fund, Munira Z. Gunja, Evan D. Gumas, Reginald D. Williams II Introduction In the previous edition of U.S. Health Care from a Global Perspective, we...

AB: This a good coverage on healthcare in the US as compared to other countries. It is long. It also has many charts and graphs rather than words. This is why I posted this at Angry Bear. It is easy to grasp the implications. U.S. Health Care from a Global Perspective, 2022, Commonwealth Fund, Munira Z. Gunja, Evan D. Gumas, Reginald D. Williams II Introduction In the previous edition of U.S. Health Care from a Global Perspective, we...

Dow Theory says transportation and production of goods should move in tandem; what is its message now?  – by New Deal democrat Partly because mid year data is now being completed, and partly to re-examine my forecasts, I’ve been conducting a top-to-bottom re-check of my metrics. One thing that seems very important is that, despite no real downturn in business at all, commodity prices have declined -9.6% in the past 12 months, one of the 4...