Tag Archives: Hot Topics

Slight decline in housing construction: the negative actual economic impact has not yet begun  – by New Deal democrat Housing permits (gold) increased slightly in January from their December lows, while the more volatile housing starts (blue) declined again. The much less volatile single family permits (red, right scale) also declined again to a new post-pandemic low: This is a very important long leading indicator, and shows that coming...

Initial claims: nobody is getting laid off, but slight weakness in continuing claims compared with 2022  – by New Deal democrat Initial claims remained below 200,000 at 195,000, while the 4 week average increased very slightly to 189,500. Continuing claims increased to 1,696,000, the third highest number in over a year: Holiday seasonality has ended. It continues to be the case that almost nobody is getting laid off. Very slightly on the...

Despite sharp rebounds in retail sales and manufacturing production, both metrics are on the cusp of being recessionary  – by New Deal democrat Retail sales for January rose strongly in January,up 30% in nominal terms and up 2.4% after accounting for inflation. While that looks great, it only reverses the two downward readings of November and December, and is similar to the reversal last January. This makes me think that there is unresolved...

I believe Ford reported $2.2 billion in losses in 2022 writing down the value of two big investments, struggling with high costs, and also supply chain problems. In 2023, there is still going to be volatility on chips, On the older chips used in the auto industry, there is still capacity constraint.” I also can’t image funding two different teams, one for EVs and the other for gasoline vehicles is helping either. Ford’s Troubles Deepen Fast,...

“This will be a national story for about 48 hours. Those folks will swoop in, leave and move on. It’ll be an MSU story, part of our community story, forever. And, for some, a new fear and a loss of peace will be part of it.“ After the 48 hours passes? Similar to the other shooting stories, this story will also be thrown on top of all the other stories of shootings. “Michigan State shooter stole lives and peace of mind,”...

An introduction to how the CDC views firearm safety, firearm violence prevention, definitions, and some numbers to think about. More Detail. It is not an attack on your ownership of a bullet-spewing-weapon. It is a recital of what they are seeing from the numbers reported. If you own a firearm, you do have an obligation to ensure its safe usage and storage. “Fast Facts: Firearm Violence Prevention, Violence Prevention, and Injury Center,” CDC....

In the Private Sector? The Protecting the Right to Organize Act is a historic proposal restoring fairness to the economy by strengthening the federal laws protecting workers’ right to unionize and bargain for higher wages and better benefits. In the Public Sector? There is no federal law protecting the freedom of state and local public service workers to join a union and collectively bargain. Numerous states have passed free rider so-called...

Up from craft workers to those of the large industrials, by the mid-20th Century unions had grown to represent large segments of American workers (density peaked at 35% of workers in 1954, membership at 21 million in 1979). From the mid-1930s through the mid-1960s they played a huge role in the nation’s politics, social order, and economy. Unions gave us the 8-hour day, weekends off, paid holidays, …, and helped end child labor. They raised living...

More Economic and Government topics the time. Much of it due to the pandemic caused economic issue. It is interesting as to how the news varies from week to week and what becomes important. I did add reports on Ukraine’s economy for 2022. You will see percentages from ~31% to ~38% cited depending on who you read. The Housing economy in in Arizona has come to a near standstill. At an AZ State House Committee meeting, the representatives were...

As Holiday seasonality disappears, initial jobless claims turn higher YoY  – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims rose 13,000 last week to 196,000. The four-week moving average declined -7,500 to 189,250. Continuing claims increased 38,000 to 1,688,000. Below I show all three since initial claims first fell below 300,000 in late October 2021: Because seasonality played such a role in January’s jobs report, here are initial claims...