Drain the Ukrainian Swamp Trump’s latest excuse for withholding arms for the Ukrainian government to defend itself against Putin’s invitations so he can extract dirt against the Bidens is what again? Oh yea – he wants to root out corruption. REALLY? OK – start with this: KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — As Rudy Giuliani was pushing Ukrainian officials last spring to investigate one of Donald Trump’s main political rivals, a group of individuals with ties to the...
Read More »Elisabeth Warren Has a Plan for America First
I plan to vote for Warren in the primary and general election, but I am not thrilled by all aspects of her plan for economic patriotism. I also have doubts about medicare for all (good policy bad politics) and forgiving student debt (good politics bad policy). Trying to be brief and actually get to the topic of this post, my problem with Medicare for All is that people fear change and, while a majority support a Medicare option, a minority supports just...
Read More »Does France Have an “Exorbitant Privilege”?
by Joseph Joyce Does France Have an “Exorbitant Privilege”? The U.S. has long been accused of using the international role of the dollar to exercise an “exorbitant privilege.” The term, first used by French finance minister Valéry Giscard d’Estaing, refers to the ability of the U.S. to finance its current account deficits and acquire foreign assets by issuing dollars as a reserve currency. While flexible exchange rates have lowered the need for reserve...
Read More »Have we finally reached “full employment”?
Have we finally reached “full employment”? As I noted on Friday, the household report – the one that tells us about unemployment, underemployment, and labor force participation – was particularly good. In fact, the last two months together have been so good that, at least by some measures, we may finally have arrived at “full employment.” Let’s start with the basics. Gains in employment as measured by the household survey (blue in the graphs below), as...
Read More »The Repo Ruckus
The Repo Ruckus This is now about three weeks old news, but it is increasingly clear that it is not clear why it happened or if it will happen again. There was an outbreak of completely unexpected volatility in the repo market, where in the past the Fed had carried out open market operations, although that had largely passed. Indeed in more recent years when the Fed has intervened in markets it has been in the reverse repo market. In any case,...
Read More »The Rich Really Do Pay Lower Taxes Than You
Opinion _ The Rich Really Do Pay Lower Taxes Than You – The New York Times Watch how radically taxes on the wealthy have fallen over the past 70 years: (Full column: https://t.co/XP0a4Iljti) pic.twitter.com/dGxmOjQ1b5 — David Leonhardt (@DLeonhardt) October 7, 2019
Read More »Expect a weak report for the leading jobs sectors on Friday
Expect a weak report for the leading jobs sectors on Friday September motor vehicle sales will be reported later today, after the domestic US manufacturers post their numbers. Sales of all other vehicles were down -13% YoY, but that is without seasonal adjustment including for Labor Day, so the seasonally adjusted sales might tell a completely different story. In the meantime, with an eye towards Friday’s jobs report, let’s take a look at what is...
Read More »First-ever binding end to a border war: Missouri-Kansas UPDATED
First-ever binding end to a border war: Missouri-Kansas UPDATED (Dan here late….August 2 post) Kansas Governor Laura Kelly has just signed an executive order that prohibits state subsidies being used to move existing Missouri firms in four Missouri counties to three Kansas counties, which together make up the Kansas City metropolitan area. Unlike previous voluntary no-raiding deals, such as NY-NJ-CT, Council of Great Lakes Governors, and even Australia’s...
Read More »Would Trump Try to Manipulate Economic Data Before the Election?
Dean Baker considers whether Trump’s group of supporters would be able to manipulate the bureacracies of the federal government to alter the economic outlook of the nation in a more expansive way than Larry Kudlow and others, but the data itself ( if that is even needed?) He says not likely, but how creative would one need to be? Dean Baker wonders out loud… Would Trump Try to Manipulate Economic Data Before the Election? I talked to a reporter last week...
Read More »August retail sales confirm healthy consumer sector
August retail sales confirm healthy consumer sector Retail sales are one of my favorite indicators, because in real terms they can tell us so much about the present, near term forecast, and longer term forecast for the economy. This morning retail sales for August were reported up +0.4%, and July, which was already very good at +0.7%, was revised upward by another +0.1% as well. Since consumer inflation increased by +0.4% over that two month period,...
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