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Loan growth remains uninteresting:And now real estate loan growth, which wasn’t much to begin with, is showing signs of leveling off: In case you thought today’s macro policies were some kind of gift to banks: Again, wouldn’t surprise me if revisions in coming years show the US has been in recession since not long after oil prices got low enough for capex to collapse. And it’s an old fashioned ‘under consumption theory’ slowdown- any agent that spent less than his income needed to be...

More bad stuff: PMI Manufacturing Index FlashHighlightsEarly indications on April factory conditions are no better than mixed with strength in the Empire State report offset by yesterday’s flat readings from the Philly Fed and another set of flat readings from today’s PMI flash. The PMI, at 50.8, is still over 50 to indicate monthly growth but is the least above 50 since the beginning of the recovery, in September 2009. Growth in both output and hiring is slowing as is growth in new orders...

Whoops, back down: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey Same here: Chicago Fed National Activity Index If this is indeed falling because benefits have been made that much harder to get it means this channel of increased govt expenditures is disabled, and the cycle will get that much worse before it gets better: Jobless ClaimsHighlightsThe labor market once again, against a background of soft data, shows itself as the economy’s leading positive. Initial claims fell 6,000 in the April...

Off to a slow start this year:Dropped again:Does the Fed care about it’s internal index?Israeli study: How Information Graphics Reveal Your Brain’s Blind Spots Houston airport: Passengers were complaining about the inordinately long time they had to wait to pick up their bags. The airport decided to look more closely at the baggage collection process. They found that passengers typically got off an airplane, walked for about a minute from the gate to the baggage claim carousels, then...

You can see from the chart this is not any kind of ‘engine of growth’ at this point in time: Existing Home SalesHighlightsExisting home sales rose more than expected in March, up 5.1 percent to a 5.330 million annualized rate that, however, fails to reverse a downwardly revised 7.3 percent drop in February. And the year-on-year rate, at only 1.5 percent, is decidedly weak. But looking at the first quarter as a whole, which is important for housing data given their volatility, existing home...

3 out of top 4 stories not looking good:Global trade still in contraction and larger foreign surpluses most often imply larger US deficits: Japan Trade Surplus Largest in Over 5 Years Japan recorded a 754.9 JPY billion surplus in March of 2016, widening sharply from a 223.47 JPY billion surplus a year earlier but below market consensus. It is the largest surplus since October 2010 as exports fell 6.8% yoy while imports dropped by 14.9%.

Starts and permits down and below expectations. I see this as removing any hope of any kind of sustainable growth. The traditional sources of private sector credit expansion- housing, vehicles, and general investment are continuing to decelerate when acceleration is needed just to replace the capital expenditures that were being generated by $100 oil. And even then GDP growth was modest, at best. United States : Housing StartsHighlightsData on the housing sector are slowing going into the...

U.S. business conditions strongest since 2014 (Reuters) U.S. business conditions are the strongest since the summer of 2014 as sentiment has recovered from a weak start to the year, signaling companies’ willingness to make capital expenditures, Morgan Stanley economists said. The bank’s business conditions index rose 3 points to 68 in April, the highest since August 2014. The index is more than double its recent trough of 29, hit in February. The bank’s hiring plans index fell 13 points in...

Confirms what had to be the case as a simple point of logic. Saudis set price and let quantity adjust: Saudi Arabia is producing below its potential capacity because it only responds to demand, the prince said. “If we produced more oil than there is demand, we would destroy many markets. So we consider supply and demand, and we look at any demand we receive and we deal with it.” Less then expected and trending lower: Consumer SentimentHighlightsA week of mostly weak economic data ends on...

Serious setback, worse than expected and last month revised down as well. Look for more Q1 GDP reductions: Industrial Production From the Fed: Industrial production and Capacity UtilizationIndustrial production decreased 0.6 percent in March for a second month in a row. For the first quarter as a whole, industrial production fell at an annual rate of 2.2 percent. A substantial portion of the overall decrease in March resulted from declines in the indexes for mining and utilities, which...