Tag Archives: US EConomics

The consumer may finally be faltering  – by New Deal democrat At this point I think the “smart” econ take is that either any recession is very much delayed, or even not going to happen at all. While everything is possible, I’ve argued in several places that if you date a potential business cycle peak to January of this year, the data doesn’t look so rosy. To wit, below is a graph with all of the main monthly data series the NBER has said it...

Scenes from the May employment report: leading indicators and the big picture  – by New Deal democrat As I wrote Friday, the May employment report was deeply bifurcated, with a strong Establishment survey, but a weak Household survey.   Let’s take a look at some of that bifurcation, focusing on the leading indicators. There are 4 leading indicators in the Establishment portion of the report: manufacturing, residential construction, and...

LOL ~ Don’t Say Stay …, Homeless on the High Desert, Ten Bears For a year and ten days I’ve been calling on Disney to Walk. A. Way You don’t need Florida and its Marielito government, in violation of contracts and agreements dating sixty years. Shut it down, walk away. You’ve made your pile, you don’t need it, unload the liability before it becomes a bigger liability. Send all those voters to the unemployment line, tourorists home...

Weekly Indicators for May 29 – June 2 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. Much like yesterday’s employment report, which showed a deep bifurcation between the Establishment and Household Surveys, the economy as a whole is also showing a deep bifurcation between elements well into recessionary territory, and elements showing strong growth. Together they net out to drifting sideways at a...

Dueling May jobs reports: establishment report strong, household report pre-recessionary  – by New Deal democrat My focus for this report continued to be whether the leading sectors and other indicators  continued to decline, and whether the pace of growth continued to decelerate. The establishment side of the report was strong, with most leading indicators improving. But the household side was not just weak, it was negative, with an...

The private banking industry either can’t or won’t do what needs to be done to stop preying on vulnerable people. The Post Office Can Bring People-Centered Public Banking to Every ZIP Code, Inequality.org, Anni Norman, Aditi Sen, May 2023. The need for a public banking option is urgent. Nearly 10 million households, a disproportionate number of whom are people of color, are unbanked in the United States. Unbanked or underbanked households...

Intensified decline in manufacturing, but another sign of a bottom in residential construction  – by New Deal democrat As usual, we start the month with reports on last month’s manufacturing, and construction from two months ago. The ISM manufacturing index has a 75 year record of being a very reliable leading indicator. According to the ISM, readings below 48 are consistent with an oncoming recession. And there, the news is not good. Not...

New and improved initial claims! Now including comparison to Sahm Rule  – by New Deal democrat I’m making an important addition to my weekly blurb on jobless claims this week: I’m showing how it compares with and leads the Sahm Rule. Just in case you’re not familiar with the Sahm Rule, it is a rule of thumb started by economist Claudia Sahm, stating that the economy is in a recession when the 3 month average of the unemployment rate rises...

There are many things which could be cut in the present Debt Ceiling bill which alleviate the unnecessary need to cut assistance to those who need it. Food assistance for very low-income older adults is not one of them. A million or so of older adults aged 50-54 will or are now at risk of losing food assistance, including a large number of women. Some of our legislators are in drastic need of the same physical labor to which many the fifty-something...

New Deal democrat has been doing JOLTS reports for a long time. Some of you may understand what NDd is discussing and some may not. Just a quick one liner to help you understand why this is important. JOLTS is a monthly survey of U.S. job vacancies, hiring, and job separations released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor. April JOLTS report noisily shows continued deceleration  – by New Deal democrat It is...