Tag Archives: US EConomics

Real retail sales continue to be weak; continue to forecast weakening jobs reports  – by New Deal democrat As usual, retail sales is one of my favorite metrics because it tells us so much about the consumer and, indirectly, the labor market and the total economy. Nominally, retail sales rose 0.6% in August. So did consumer inflation, and the difference rounded to -0.1% for the month. Here’s what the past 2.5 years since the 2021 stimulus...

The economic tailwind from falling commodity prices has likely ended  – by New Deal democrat [Note: I’ll post on the August retail sales report later today.] Two days ago in my PPI and CPI overview, I wrote; “I am most interested in whether the producer price report tells us that the big decline in commodity prices is over. There have only been two increases in commodity prices in the past 12 months [ ] I suspect we’ll get #3 [on...

The deep roots of the UAW’s current dissatisfaction share much with those taking labor actions to fight back after decades of rising inequality: The pay of typical workers has lagged far behind more-privileged actors in our economy, and the reason for this growing inequality is an erosion of workers’ leverage and bargaining power in labor markets. Open Thread September 9, 2023 Where do Americans mingle the most? Angry Bear....

UAW-automakers negotiations pit falling wages against skyrocketing CEO pay: U.S. auto companies have the means to invest in EVs, pay workers a fair share, and still earn healthy profits | Economic Policy Institute, epi.org, Adam S. Hersh. Yet they are not paying Labor it’s overdue fair share of wages. United Auto Workers (UAW) members at the “Big 3” companies of Ford, General Motors (GM), and Stellantis are waiting to strike this week....

Initial jobless claims maintain renewed yellow caution flag  – by New Deal democrat Some post-pandemic unresolved seasonality may be affecting the weekly claims figures, as just like last year, they are declining sharply compared with early August. But on a YoY basis, they are not nearly so positive. Initial jobless claims rose 3,000 last week to 220,000. The 4 week average declined -5,000 to 224,500. With a one-week delay, continuing claims...

In May of 2023 The $20 Billion Scam At The Heart Of Medicare Advantage, PNHP, Matthew Cunningham-Cook and Andrew Perez, Lever News, May 2023. Health insurance company Humana enjoyed a banner year in 2022. Humana made $2.8 billion in profits in 2022, while paying out $448 million in dividends to shareholders, and paying more than $17 million in compensation to its CEO. One of the main inputs to those earnings was the federal government’s $20.5...

“REACHing” for Equity — Moving from Regressive toward Progressive Value-Based Payment, NEJM, Suhas Gondi, Karen Joynt Maddox, and Rishi K. Wadhera. A pretty good take on Value Based Payment Programs and what are the issues. Keep in mind, who determines what the value is to the patient. What is the rub here. Who ascertains the degree of value or is it just the profit motive driving this program also. Just like Medicare Advantage . . . service and...

August consumer inflation confirms “Goldilocks” “soft landing” may well be “transitory”  – by New Deal democrat Let me start by quoting from my post yesterday: “As to consumer prices, I am most interested in the relative weights of decelerating shelter increases (which as I have written many times are well-forecasted by the more current home price indexes and new rent indexes) vs. increasing gas prices  “I suspect that the increase in gas...

PPI and CPI preview: why Paul Krugman’s “Goldilocks” economy is likely to prove “transitory” – by New Deal democrat Sorry for the lack of posting yesterday. Every now and then, real life intrudes and, well, yesterday was one of those days. All of the economic data this week is going to be crammed into tomorrow through Friday.  Most importantly for present purposes, I am very interested in dissecting both the producer and consumer price...

The budget deficit is the change in the nominal face value of public debt. It is roughly unique (as far as I know) being the change in a quantity which is not corrected for inflation. We do not usually talk about nominal GDP growth or nominal wage growth. The sustainable deficit increases one for one in debt*inflation, so the term should be removed if one is thinking of long term sustainability. I think the reason the absurd number is used is...