Tag Archives: US EConomics

Manufacturing and construction give very mixed signals to start Second Half 2023 data  – by New Deal democrat As usual, the month’s data started out with the ISM manufacturing report for last month, and construction spending for the month before last. Additionally, I am going to take a look at motor vehicle production, because I think it is unusually important right now. Manufacturing contracted for about the 10th month in a row in July,...

Dow Theory says transportation and production of goods should move in tandem; what is its message now?  – by New Deal democrat Partly because mid year data is now being completed, and partly to re-examine my forecasts, I’ve been conducting a top-to-bottom re-check of my metrics. One thing that seems very important is that, despite no real downturn in business at all, commodity prices have declined -9.6% in the past 12 months, one of the 4...

Earlier this year, one company’s closing is adding to national pharmaceutical shortages and capacity in its bankruptcy. The closing can be construed as more than just allowing a laissez-faire economic policy. There are greater healthcare implications for the US. The nation can rescue banks, companies such as AIG, and those gambling with CDS, countering naked CDS, tranched CDOs threatening the national economy. It fails to see the threat of the...

Weekly Indicators for July 24 – 28 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. While there continues to be evidence of the normal progression of weakness from long leading to short leading to coincident indicators, there has also been an anomalous major positive resurgence in some of the short leading indicators. By normal historical standards, we “ought” to be well into a downturn. And yet...

I guess one could get by on this salary if one were frugal, could find low-cost housing, maybe used public transportation, ate cheaply, etc. There is not much room for anything else. And yet people still manage to do it. As EPI details, Nineteen percent of workers (9.76 million workers) in 20 states are paid less than $15 per hour, compared with 13% of workers in the 30 states. “Workers are 46% more likely to make below $15 an hour in states...

The Price of Liberty is Eternal Vigilance – Through Critical Thinking, (substack.com, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar Not many people realize the Statue of Liberty has broken chains at her feet. Originally, the chains were going to be placed in her hand, but the tablet eventually replaced that idea. When the Statue’s unveiling celebration took place on October 28, 1886, women’s groups protested the self-congratulatory nature of the day, given that women...

Driven by the hurricane force disinflationary tailwind, real personal spending and income, and real sales, all increase nicely  – by New Deal democrat In the current economy the personal spending and income report is just as important as the jobs report. That’s because, despite the downturn in manufacturing production and many parts of the housing market, consumer spending especially on services has continued to power the economy forward....

The Fed’s Target Is Workers, Project Syndicate, James K. Galbraith, January 2022 A year and a half later and the Fed is still trying to slay the dragon. They stab it with their steely knives, But they just can’t kill the beast. So it seems, the Feds losing battle is with Labor, direct Labor is the smallest portion of manufacturing. Without labor there is no product, just bets on the outcome of the economy. ~~~~~~~~ By announcing forthcoming...

Q2 GDP indicates continued good expansion now, but more storm clouds gathered ahead  – by New Deal democrat Now let’s deal with this morning’s big news: real GDP improved at a perfectly respectable 0.6% over the first Quarter of this year: This works out to a 2.4% annualized rate. Although it continues the slowdown from the white hot 2021 numbers, it would be average for the economy since the turn of the Millenium. As per my usual...

I suspect that at the end of July, just about every expert globally will be looking for reasons why July’s climate will potentially be the hottest month experienced since we started to keep records. The U.S. has broken more than 2,000 high temperature records in the past month. The United States is long overdue in taking action to minimize the harm we as citizens exact upon our America. I guess we are not proud enough of this country to do...