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Tag Archives: US EConomics

New Deal democrat’s weekly indicators for October 17 – 21

Weekly Indicators for October 17 – 21 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. If you thought the long leading indicators couldn’t get any worse – well, they could. As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you up to the virtual moment as to how the economy is doing right now, and how it is likely to perform over the next 12 months+. “New Deal democrat’s Weekly Indicators for October 10 – 14,” Angry Bear...

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If GOP Wins Either House Of Congress, Dems Must Kill the Debt Ceiling

If GOP Wins Either House Of Congress, Dems Must Kill Debt Ceiling  If it comes to pass and especially if the GOP takes both houses, presumably Democrats will be able to kill the debt ceiling in the lame duck session. This assumes Manchin and Sinema stick with them on it, which one of them might not. As a budget matter, it can pass by reconciliation, which avoids a filibuster. It can also be passed with only 50 votes plus VP Harris in the Senate....

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September existing home sales and prices decline

September existing home sales and prices decline  – by New Deal democrat With the exception of their big impact on prices, I do not particularly pay attention to existing home sales. Their economic impact is small compared with the construction of new homes; at best they add confirmation to a trend in new home sales, permits, and starts. In September, existing home sales did continue to decline, by 2%, to 4.71 million units annualized (Note:...

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Jobless claims flat for the moment

Jobless claims flat for the moment  – by New Deal democrat There’s no big news in the jobless claims release this week. Initial claims fell -12,000 to 214,000, but the 4 week average increased 1,250 to 212,250. Continuing claims, which lag somewhat, increased 21,000 to 1,385,000: To the extent there is any discernible trend, I would call it sideways in the past few weeks. I had expected gas prices to continue to rise following OPEC’s...

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Eileen AppeIbaum on Albertsons – Kroger Merger Big Win for Private Equity – Big Loss for Workers

With regard to the Albertson – Kroger merger.   CEPR’s Eileen Appelman discusses a private equity profit scheme involving the Kroger/Albertsons grocery megamerger. Albertsons will pay out about a third of its market value to its former private equity owners and investors in November as part of the merger with Kroger. The large payment sets up Albertsons for bankruptcy which Kroger can use to defend the merger. Appelbaum” “‘Albertson’s...

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Housing on track for an early 2023 recession, but with a major caveat

Housing on track for an early 2023 recession, but with a major caveat  – by New Deal democrat I don’t think anybody was expecting a good housing construction report this month. Those non-expectations were certainly fulfilled. Housing permits rose slightly, 1.4%, from last month’s 2 year low. Single family permits, which contain even more signal, declined -3.1% to the lowest level in 3 years excluding two pandemic lockdown months. The more...

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Strong September Industrial Production

September industrial production comes in very strong  – by New Deal democrat September’s industrial production report puts the final nail in the coffin in the notion that the US is already in recession. I call industrial production the King of Coincident Indicators because, more than any other single metric, it coincides with the peaks and troughs of US economic activity as determined by the NBER. In September total production increased...

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The “Consumer nowcast” recession warning is triggered

The “Consumer nowcast” recession warning is triggered, as real wages decline, real aggregate payrolls near stall, plus record mortgage payments  – by New Deal democrat No economic news today. So, now that we have the September inflation read, let’s take a look at a couple of important consumer indicators: real average wages, and real aggregate payrolls for non-supervisory workers. Real average hourly wages for non-supervisory employees have...

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A dastardly plot

Infidel753: “A dastardly plot,” Infidel753 Blog While winning a Senate majority increasingly looks out of reach for Republicans, a House majority is distinctly possible.  If they get it, they plan to force Democrats to make concessions which would almost certainly include cuts to Social Security and Medicare — possibly by drastically raising the eligibility age, though if they really want to cut spending quickly, it’s hard to see how they could...

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New Deal democrat’s Weekly Indicators for October 10 – 14

Weekly Indicators for October 10 – 14 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Just about everything looks awful. And one bright spot, consumer spending as measured by Redbook, just got dimmer. Needless to say, if consumer spending rolls over, that’s pretty much the ball game.. You can be brought up to the virtual moment in the ugliness by clicking over and reading, and it will reward...

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