Tag Archives: US/Global Economics

Disappointing weekly increase in new jobless claims, but monthly trend improves; expect a 200,000+ number of new jobs in next Employment Report  – by New Deal democrat New jobless claims are likely to the most important weekly economic data for the next 3 to 6 months. They are going to tell us whether my suspicion is correct that, as a critical mass of those vaccinated is reached, there will be a veritable surge in renewed commercial and...

Big (weather related) declines in February production and sales This morning (Tuesday) we got the most important single metrics for both the consumer and producer side of the economy for February, respectively, retail sales and industrial production. Both were big misses, one explicitly and the other likely due to the big freeze in Texas and neighboring States.Let’s turn to production first. Total industrial production declined by -2.2% in...

Coronavirus dashboard for March 15: good news, and cause for concern A year ago today I wrote about the accuracy of Jim Bianco’s forecast of exponential spread of COVID-19. At that time there were exactly 2952 cases, but increasing at 30% each day, and I wrote, “I have not seen any government action significant enough to stop this exponential projection being correct.”  As of yesterday, there have been 29,438,775 *confirmed* cases – 9% of the...

Commenter and writer RJS (Marketwatch666) reports on February Producer Prices. Producer Prices rose 0.5% in February on Higher Wholesale Food & Energy Prices The seasonally adjusted Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand rose 0.5% in February, as prices for finished wholesale goods were on average 1.4% higher, while margins of final services providers increased by 0.1%…that followed a January report that had the PPI 1.3% higher, with...

Chairman Powell, Secretary Yellen, and President Biden have recently spoken about the long term consequences for many of economic downturns. More should, more often. The Media should recognize how important this is; ask the question whenever it needs to be asked. The Congress should put this front and center in any and all discussions about economic policy. Why? Because millions of Americans never recovered from 1979-1980. Millions more never...

New jobless claims continue to decline, just above the pandemic low New jobless claims are likely to the most important weekly economic data for the next 3 to 6 months. They are going to tell us whether my suspicion that, as a critical mass of those vaccinated is reached, there will be a veritable surge in renewed commercial and social activities and attendant consumer spending, leading in turn to a strong rebound in monthly employment gains...

“To Tackle Inequality, We Need to Start Talking About Where Wealth Comes From,” Evonomics, Laurie Macfarlane, March 13, 2021 Do people in Britain resent the rich? According to two new studies published this week, the answer to this question is: “not really.” The studies, one commissioned by Trust for London and another by Tax Justice UK, explore public attitudes towards wealth based on focus groups held across England. Both found that most...

February consumer inflation begins to heat up a little Seasonally adjusted consumer prices rose 0.4% in February. As a result, over the past several months there has been a significant uptick in YoY inflation to 1.7% from 1.1% in November.  Aside from the pandemic, for the past 40 years, recessions had happened when CPI less energy costs (red) had risen to close to or over 3%/year, usually driven by increases in the price of oil by more than...

January JOLTS report: during the wintertime pandemic surge, hiring hit a brick wall Yesterday morning’s JOLTS report for January was confirmatory of the weak jobs report for that month, showing a largely paused recovery. Further, for the second month in a row, hires were down sharply. Let’s examine this in accord with the data from the prior two recoveries covered by this report, which has only a 20-year history. In the two past recoveries:...

William Godwin’s ethic of leisure and the riddle of social justice In An Enquiry Concerning Political Justice (1793) William Godwin declared, “the object, in the present state of society, is to multiply labour; in another state, it will be to simplify it.” In The Enquirer (1797), he affirmed, “[t]he genuine wealth of man is leisure, when it meets with a disposition to improve it. All other riches are of petty and inconsiderable value. Is there...