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Tag Archives: US/Global Economics

ISM Reports Show Broad Economic Strength: Latest Nowcasts are Strong

by Hale Stewart (originally published at Bonddad blog) ISM Reports Show Broad Economic Strength: Latest Nowcasts are Strong The latest ISM reports are out and both show broad strenght.  The new orders and production component of the manufacturing report were very strong (up +.6 to 64 and +2.9 to 63.9, respectively).  The anecdotal comments were very bullish: The service sector numbers were also strong: production +.9 to 62.2.  New orders were off...

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Has Dean Baker Joined Team Republican?

Has Dean Baker Joined Team Republican? The dishonesty ab out the Trump tax cut for the rich from certain Republican leading conservatives are been extensively noted so let’s not go there. But why is Dean Baker writing this? There are two ways in which we can say that a deficit/debt is will hurt our children. The first is by slowing economic growth and therefore making the economy and our kids less wealthy in the future than they otherwise would be. The...

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Mike Kimel on tax cuts plan economics

(Dan here…lifted from an e-mail) I’m not registered with seeking alpha so I cannot read the whole article (I had sent), but what I read looks a lot like what I’ve written over the years.  Here are some statements which, working off memory, I have written posts about and which I think are supported by US macroeconomic data from the last 100 years: 1.  A tax cut generally gooses the economy in the short run (one – two years). That story is a Republican...

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Bitcoin Prime

Also know as collectors vintage bitcoins. This is a crazy idea with no redeeming social value. BitCoin is valuable only because people expect it to be valuable in the future. I am sure there is BitCoin bubble, but it wouldn’t be that strange for for something useless to be valuable. Cancelled stamps may be valuable. Old coins have numismatic value. Old coins hmmm … pity BitCoins are just numbers uh first recorded on a given date … hmmm OK so I want to...

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Flynn Bails, but Don’t Get Your Hopes Up

Flynn Bails, but Don’t Get Your Hopes Up I haven’t seen anything yet to convince me that the Putin-Trump collaboration was a big deal.  Ugly and unprincipled, sure, but politically consequential, probably not. A contrary view, expressed by Harry Litman in today’s New York Times, is that this is the beginning of the end for the Trumpster.  The evidence is accumulating that, between his election in November of last year and his inauguration on January 20...

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Taxing corporations

I will ease the pain from this early morning (when GOP senate slashed corporate taxes) by escaping into fantasy, I mean theory, but I repeat myself. A key theoretical argument about taxing profits (due to Diamond and Mirrlees I think) is that the tax can be very very high if firms maximize profits, because maximizing 0.5X is just the same problem as maximizing X. This is a tax on pure profits (profits minus capital times the cost of capital) . The...

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Is Bitcoin A Speculative Bubble?

Is Bitcoin A Speculative Bubble?  There are at least two definitions of a speculative bubble.  The first, and most widely accepted, is that it involves a price of an asset that rises substantially above its fundamental and then falls back towards that fundamental.  The other, not necessarily all that clearly distinguishable from the former, involves an asset price that rises due to people buying due to an expectation that they will get a capital gain from...

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Cryptocurrencies: Future or bubble?

Brian Down from Focus Economics was looking for a response on cryptocurrencies…could make an interesting thread! I’m emailing you today because I am putting together a piece on cryptocurrencies and it would be great to get a comment from you on the subject. While some believe that cryptocurrencies are the future, the prevailing view appears to be that cryptos are nothing more than the 21st century version of Tulip Mania. Despite this prevailing view,...

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