Tag Archives: US/Global Economics

by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for November 30 – December 4 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. There is more evidence of weakening of the coincident data, probably as the result of the completely out of control pandemic. Some of that is probably due to new restrictions, some to winter weather causing people to curtail some activities, and some (probably most of all) to people becoming much more...

November jobs report: the “least positive” report since April HEADLINES: 245,000 million jobs gained. The gains since May total about 55% of the 22.1 million job losses in March and April. The alternate and more volatile measure in the household report indicated a loss of -74,000 jobs, which factors into the unemployment and underemployment rates below.U3 unemployment rate fell -0.2% from 6.9% to 6.7%, compared with the January low of 3.5%.U6...

by New Deal democrat First look at the 2021 economy: housing As I’ve pointed out for years, housing is a long leading indicator. It can give us a decent read on the direction of the overall economy 12 to 18 months out. So the strength in the housing market in the past 6 months has been a powerful positive omen for the economy going into 2021. Yesterday residential construction spending for October was reported and continued that string of very positive...

November data starts out strong with a very positive ISM manufacturing index The first November data point, the ISM manufacturing index, was reported this morning, and while it declined from last month, it remained very strongly positive. The overall index declined from 59.3 to 57.5, and the more forward-looking new orders index declined from 67.9 to 65.1: Since any reading above 50, however, indicates expansion, these were positive readings. The...

 by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for November 23 – 27 at Seeking Alpha A little later than usual, my Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. While there has been no big deterioration, there are further slight signs that the out of control pandemic is taking a toll on the recovery that has been underway for the past 6 months. As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you up to the virtual moment on the economy, and reward me a little...

October personal income declines, but still well above pre-pandemic peak; increased likelihood of negative pandemic reversal in jobless claims Before I turn to this week’s report on jobless claims, a brief word first about October’s personal income and spending. Although personal income declined in October compared with September, more importantly depending on how you measure it, real personal income is still 2.6% to 3.4% *higher* than it was at its...

Is Bitcoin A Bubble?  We have all thought so, with no income and nothing backing it, and it went zooming from nearly nothing to over $19,000, only to fall back hard down to around $3000, where it more or less hung out for a couple of years with the occasional up  to $6000 or so.  But recently it has moved up to over $18,000, near its previous peak, and some other cryptocurrencies have also moved up sharply, with #2 Ethereum essentially doubling in price...

Yemen: More Damage To World Peace And Security Due To Trump Wrecking Everything As He Exits Michigan certified its vote results for Biden, and now crucially Emily Murphey at the GSA has agreed and now recognized officially that at least Joe Biden should be allowed to transition properly as has always happened in the past normally. But in his lame duckery, still denying his obvious loss, Donald Trump is trashing everything in sight.  Very serious...

Janet Yellen Will Be Treasury Secretary  I have long been a great fan of hers as well as knowing her and her husband, George Akerlof, personally.  Back in 2009 I was the first person to call for her to be named Fed Chair. I am very pleased with this appointment.  This is as good as it gets. (For those who wanted Lael Brainerd, we need her at the Fed where all the current governors are Trump appointees other than her).  Elizabeth Warren also would have...

(Dan here,,,I think worth looking at in American Affairs) New Fault Lines in a Post-Globalized World By Marshall Auerback and Jan Ritch-Frel November 20, 2020The economic damage of the coronavirus pandemic has upended the global economic system and, just as importantly, cast out the neoliberal orthodoxy that dominated the industrialized world for the past forty years. But Covid-19 has only accelerated a process that was already well underway, impacting...