Tag Archives: US/Global Economics

Is The Possible V-Shaped Recovery Flattening As The Second Quarter Comes To An End? Probably,  although it is unclear whether or not we are having a V-shaped recovery (see most recent post here). However, whatever it is, it looks like the revived spread of the coronavirus is probably slowing it somewhat.  New cases are up by 15% nationally from a low point several weeks ago, and there are reports of businesses of various sorts of closing, if not whole...

The 2020 Presidential election as forecast by State polling As we all know, in the US Presidential election national polls are of limited use, as the election is actually decided on a State by State basis. I’ve seen lots of projections of the Electoral College vote based on national polls, but what if we go just by State polls, and in particular State polls that have been reported in the last 30 days? That, dear reader, is what the following map looks...

by David Zetland    (One handed economist) Interesting stuff “Biohacking life” — a physics geek gets into our metabolism Governments are printing money to “get out of the crisis”, but they are probably sowing the seeds of the next crisis (of inflation? fiscal collapse?) An incredibly interesting dive into Japanese cosmology The American Press Is Destroying Itself (under pressures of political correctness) This is the governance article (good/bad responses...

New and continued jobless claims level off, as spreading secondary impacts and job recalls balance Weekly initial and continuing jobless claims give us the most up-to-date snapshot of the continuing economic impacts of the coronavirus on employment. Three full months after the initial shock, the overall damage remains huge, with recalls to work roughly balanced with spreading new secondary impacts. First, here are initial jobless claims both seasonally...

Angry Bear Still On List Of Top Economics Blogs For 2020 Intelligent Economist has again put out its annual list of the top 100 economics blogs, with some new ones and some gone, although two of those were due to retirements, especially the  Economists View of Mark Thoma. Closely connected Econospeak , Bondadd blog ,  and Capital Ebbs and Flows also were named to the top 100 economic blogs, ...

Might There Be A V-Shaped Economic Recovery After All? Maybe. This is a matter where if it happens, I shall be proven wrong.  I have mostly emphasized how much uncertainty and lack of knowledge we face about the pandemic as well as the economy in this situation, and have as a result largely stayed away from making specific or definite forecasts on those matters.  However, here and in other places on the internet, I have made a lot of forecasts that the...

The Coronavirus Recession may already (technically) have ended: sales and production both increased in May  – by New Deal democrat Sales and production are two of the four things that economists look for in gauging whether the economy is in expansion or recession, and this morning both of them – retail sales and industrial production – were released for May. So it’s true: as defined by the NBER, the Coronavirus Recession may have only lasted two months,...

by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for June 8 – 12 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. The short leading indicators have continued to improve, from awful, to less awful, to merely really bad. But that the NASDAQ briefly made a new high last week, while the S&P was only 5% from one, while the coronavirus pandemic rages on, was simply insane. As usual, clicking over and reading should bring you up to the moment on the...

Coronavirus dashboard for June 12: the costs of recklessly reopening begin to come due  – by New Deal democrat It is pretty clear now that in general those States (but not all) which left lockdowns the earliest and with the most lax continuing restrictions are suffering renewed outbreaks of the coronavirus, *possibly* in several cases verging on exponential spread. For the US in total, the 7 day average of deaths has continued to decline, now at 803 per...

Initial jobless claims decline further, but continuing claims fail to make meaningful progress – by New Deal democrat Weekly initial and continuing jobless claims give us the most up-to-date  snapshot of the continuing  economic impacts of the coronavirus to the average worker. Twelve weeks after calamity first struck, the theme remains “less awful.” First, here are initial jobless claims both seasonally adjusted (blue) and non- seasonally adjusted...