Tag Archives: US/Global Economics

Via the Boston Globe  comes the consideration of boundary problems this pandemic poses between US states. Worth a discussion. Also, on the world stage, the EU and other countries consider relaxing travel restrictions from ‘safe’ countries, the US not among them. Visitor quarantines may seem like a smart intervention to keep the virus from crossing state lines. Symptoms can take up to 14 days to appear after someone is infected, and research suggests...

All 4 coincident indicators of recession improved in May vs. April With this morning’s release of personal income and spending, we now have all 4 coincident indicators for May that the NBER uses to determine whether the economy is in a recession or recovery/expansion. And all 4 improved from their “most horrible” readings in April. A recession is a generalized downturn in production, employment, sales, and income. The “income” metric that the NBER uses...

by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for June 22 – 26 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. The coincident indicators, as well as the short leading indicators, have continued to improve gradually each week. But this week may be the near term peak, as the reality of renewed exponential spread of the coronavirus in recklessly reopened States starts to hit home. You cannot force people to patronize businesses if they believe...

Initial jobless claims improve slightly; continuing claims resume decline Weekly initial and continuing jobless claims give us the most up-to-date snapshot of the continuing economic impacts of the coronavirus on employment. More than three full months after the initial shock, the overall damage remains huge, with large spreading new secondary impacts. The positive news is that the total number of claims, including continuing claims, has resumed being...

Via Economic Populist, rjs writes: Global oil output surplus was at 8.6 million barrels per day in May, despite OPEC cut of 6.3 million bpd Submitted by rjs on June 22, 2020 – 3:16pm Wednesday of this past week saw the release of OPEC’s June Oil Market Report, which covers OPEC & global oil data for May, and hence it gives us a picture of the global oil supply & demand situation during the first month of the two-month agreement between OPEC,...

Coronavirus dashboard for June 23: focusing on deaths, and the Trumpist South and Southwest Confirmed total US infections: 2,312,302. (+31,433 in past 24 hours) Confirmed total US deaths: 120,402 (+425 in past 24 hours) We know that new cases are accelerating again. Is it translating into an increase in deaths? The answer appears to be: not yet, but getting close. Here is the 7 day average of new deaths in the US: Figure 1 In the past 3 days, the...

———————————————————————–||———————–         The Past                                                                  Now             The Future What Will History Say by Ken Melvin When the new US History books come out in 2040, what will they have to say about 2020? What will they say about:  Globalization?  The Trump Presidency?  Global Warming?  The 2020 Pandemic?  China’s Rise?  America’s Decline?  Capitalism and Free markets?  Mitch McConnell? to run...

by Joseph Joyce The Challenges to the Dollar The dollar’s position as the premier global currency has long seemed secure. The dollar accounts for about 60% of the foreign exchange reserves of central banks and similar proportions of international debt and loans. But recent developments raise the possibility of a transition to a stratified world economy in which the use of other currencies for regional trade and finance becomes more common. Such a...

Is The Possible V-Shaped Recovery Flattening As The Second Quarter Comes To An End? Probably,  although it is unclear whether or not we are having a V-shaped recovery (see most recent post here). However, whatever it is, it looks like the revived spread of the coronavirus is probably slowing it somewhat.  New cases are up by 15% nationally from a low point several weeks ago, and there are reports of businesses of various sorts of closing, if not whole...

The 2020 Presidential election as forecast by State polling As we all know, in the US Presidential election national polls are of limited use, as the election is actually decided on a State by State basis. I’ve seen lots of projections of the Electoral College vote based on national polls, but what if we go just by State polls, and in particular State polls that have been reported in the last 30 days? That, dear reader, is what the following map looks...