Tag Archives: US/Global Economics

February jobs report: a blowout HEADLINES: +273,000 jobs added U3 unemployment rate declined -0.1% to 3.5% U6 underemployment rate rose 0.1% to 7.0% Leading employment indicators of a slowdown or recession   I am highlighting these because many leading indicators overall have strongly suggested that an employment slowdown is here. The following more leading numbers in the report tell us about where the economy is likely to be a few months from now. These...

 Vehicle sales for February continue to show mixed picture Let’s take a look at February car and heavy truck sales. Putting this in perspective of economic cycles, typically, after housing turns, consumer purchases of vehicles and then other durable goods (like major appliances) turn down. Broader consumer purchases are the last to turn down before a recession. Light vehicle sales in February were estimated by the BEA at 16.7 million annualized (blue in...

US consumers . . . still consuming Aside from sitting around twiddling our thumbs waiting for partial motor vehicle sales from February to be reported later, there’s no economic news of note today. But Tuesday mornings each week we do get chain store sales from the previous week. And if you’ve been paying attention, you know that I have been paying particular attention to these for signs that the producer downturn is spreading to consumers. That has...

by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for February 24 – 28 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. What happened in the past week certainly fits the definition of a crash – a loss of more than 10% in just five days – in my mind anyway. Not just stocks, but commodities also crashed. Perhaps surprisingly, in the “hard” data of actual production and consumption, there doesn’t seem to have been much of an impact. In any event,...

(Dan here…another  of David Zetland’s students Johanna writes on groundwater…a reminder of what also matters during this heated political climate, and from a younger generation. The first mention of water wars at AB was 2007 I believe.) Atlanta and downstream friends Johanna writes* This post offers some insight into the problems of water management in Atlanta (the capital of Georgia) and the effects of those problems on its downstream neighbors Florida...

January real personal income consistent with either slowdown or incipient recession Real personal income (less government transfers) is one of the four coincident indicators the NBER looks at in determining recessions. Since January’s numbers were reported this morning, let’s take an updated look. Truth be told, real personal income is actually a short lagging indicator. It frequently continues to improve a few months into a recession – and...

Housing: prices follow sales, February 2020 edition One of the consistent things I have written about the housing market for going on 10 years is that interest rates lead sales, and sales in turn lead prices. Last week with the continued increase in housing starts and permits we got further proof of the former, and this morning with the release of several house price indexes, we got further proof of the latter. Below I show the FHFA house price index...

by New Deal democrat The impact of coronavirus on my slowdown vs. recession forecast  For roughly the last half year, my forecast has been that a slowdown without a recession was the most likely scenario, *IF* the economy were left to its own devices. Well, given the horror scenarios possible with the coronavirus outbreak, the economy is certainly not being “left to its own devices.” I took a look at how that intersects with my forecast over at Seeking...

by Joseph Joyce The Long Reach of U.S. Monetary Policy The spillover of U.S. monetary policy on foreign economies has become an active area of research. Analysts seek to identify the channels of transmission between the policy stance of the Federal Reserve and foreign interest rates and credit extension. The usual account is that an expansionary Fed policy leads to capital outflows and an appreciation of foreign currencies as investors seek higher yields...

Regional Fed Manufacturing Indexes Improving It’s been a really slow newsweek so far, with no important data until tomorrow.  Until then, here’s a note of interest. This morning’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey was the third regional report in a row (after Richmond and Dallas in the last week of January) to show a strong rebound in strength, as the new orders index jumped 15.5 to 22.1 (values over zero indicate improvement). Here’s what the average...