Tag Archives: US/Global Economics

by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for December 24 – 28 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators column is Up at Seeking Alpha. Ideally a change in trend in the long leading indicators should, over time, manifest in the short leading indicators. Well, in the first half of 2018, the long leading indicators went from positive to weak positive to neutral, where they have generally remained ever since. Now, the short leading indicators have …. Click over and...

Taxes Up 30%! A couple of months ago yours truly complained a bit about some fiscal dishonesty coming from Team Trump: He was basically lying to us hoping the public would be too stupid to realize that when the price level rose by 2.5% during the same period, we are talking about a 2% real decrease in tax revenues. But if we look at customs duties we do see an increase in a category that represents a very modest part of Federal tax collections. Back in...

Could an Oil Patch decline turn a 2019 slowdown into an outright recession? One of the items I mentioned in my piece yesterday at Seeking Alpha was the recent big decline in oil prices. Please go read the piece, it puts a couple of pennies in my pocket! But in that article I referenced the decline in industrial production that was caused by the 2014-15 decline in gas prices. I wanted to follow up a little here. In 2014 into early 2015, Oil prices...

On the Front Lines of Climate Change: Old White Homeowners, Many of them Upper Class The other night I was sitting at home, locked in a conversation about climate change and race.  How is this a racial issue, I asked?  I realize that the society I live in has pervasive racism, and one should always keep this in mind, but how specifically is climate change worse for nonwhites? Well, it’s all about first and worst impacts, I was told.  People of color are...

(Dan here…lifted from Robert’s Stochastic Thoughts) Paul Ryan wouldn’t recognize a free market if one bit him Robert Costa and Mike DeBonis wrote an excellent retrospective on the career of Paul Ryan‘He was the future of the party’: Ryan’s farewell triggers debate about his legacy They are quite harsh, but not, I think, quite harsh enough. My comment: This is an excellent article. Tough but fair with no sugar coating but also no discourtesy. However,...

by New Deal democrat The Fed scrapes Scylla after careening into Charybdis In the past several years, I have described the Fed as trying to steer in between the Scylla of a yield curve inversion and the Charybdis of higher rates wounding the housing market.Recently several trends have reversed. This offers some relief to housing, but more risks to the economy as a whole. This post is Up at Seeking Alpha. By the way, several times yesterday and today, the...

November housing permits boosted by multifamily dwellings November was a *relatively* good month for housing permits, as in, improved *relative* to most of this year, although not at the heights of last winter. Most importantly, the least volatile number, single family permits, was flat compared with last month, and down -2% from a year ago: There’s no change of trend here. Total permits did increase decently, and are up (less than 1%) YoY,...

11 years after the huge financial rescue operation, procrastinators look at the cost to the Treasury. The numbers are gigantic. Also the cost was negative. Saving the financial system and preventing a second great depression was, I think, the most profitable trade in human history by far. Crude accounting suggests this, but there are two relatively sophisticated arguments that the rescue didn’t yield profits and was, in fact, costly. First the notorious...

The US economy did not boom in 2018 At the beginning of each year, I try to identify economic series that I think will be most important in the next 12 months.  This year I asked: Is the US economy going to enter a Boom in 2018? There is no standard definition of a Boom. But in my lifetime there have been two occasions when the “good times” feeling was palpable, and the economy was working extremely well on a very broad basis: the 1960s and the late...

by New Deal democrat The Transportation Slowdown Well over 100 years ago, Charles Dow (he of the Dow Jones Industrial Average) posited a theory that industrial and transportation stock prices should move in tandem. Why? Because everything that factories produced had to be transported to market for delivery. So it is of interest that FedEx said yesterday that its business has been slowing down. And an important trucking transportation metric softened in...