Tag Archives: US/Global Economics

Cochrane Fails to Make His Case for the Trump Tax Cut Again John Cochrane recently noted: Stock Buybacks Are Proof of Tax Reform’s Success… A short oped for the Wall Street Journal here on stock buybacks. As usual, they ask me not to post the whole thing for 30 days though you can find it ungated if you search. I did search and found this. Does the Wall Street Journal get the fact that rebutting weak arguments against a policy are not exactly making an...

(Dan here…Better late than never!) A thought for Sunday: the march of demographics and the 2018 midterms Below is a graph showing that the older the demographic (up until age 80), the bigger the turnout during midterm elections. The data behind this graph isn’t just from 2014, but from a series of midterm elections over time — in other words, it has been durable over time. My purpose in this post is show that, even if these percentages hold in this...

Jeffrey Sachs on Trump’s Trade Fallacies I heard on some news show an incredibly stupid statement from our President earlier today and in utter disbelief fired off this comment on some blog: Trump equates our trade deficit with us being ripped off. Let’s do this as a simple example. You walk into Best Buy and purchase a $1000 computer but do not have cash. So you put it on your credit card incurring a $1000 liability. Even though you now have the...

Eastern Economic Association Conference So, I returned late last night from Boston where I presented three papers at the 44th Eastern Economic Association conference.  Only about 70% of those preregistered made it due to weather, with airport and train station both closed on Friday, first full day of conference. One of those who did not make it was James Galbraith, scheduled to give the first Godley-Tobin plenary lecture, sponsored by the Review of...

Saudi Crown Prince Tortures Fellow Princes A new report by Hugh Miles at Middle East Monitor, Is the “Saudi Elite Cannibalizing Itself?” by Juan Cole, reports the recent purge of supposedly corrupt princes and high officials was (and continues to be) much more horrendous than previously reported, which I fear does not surprise me. Apparently Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS), whom I have previously posted about here, hired mercenaries to...

(Dan here…I am always looking for new writers that might make a good fit for AB.  Jeff is in the field of behavioral economics in the private sector.  I know that the topic of climate change is a hot one here, but remember this is his first here…) by Jeff Soplop Climate Change and Environmental Frames: The Consensus-Action Disconnect American attitudes toward the environment generally – and climate change specifically – could long be described as...

Wilbur Ross on the Effective Rate of Protection When I watched this clip by Wilbur Ross – all I could think of was Mr. Ed. But what did he say? “In a can of Campbell’s Soup, there are about 2.6 pennies worth of steel. So if that goes up by 25 percent, that’s about six-tenths of 1 cent on the price on a can of Campbell’s soup,” Ross argued. “I just bought this can today at a 7-Eleven … and it priced at a $1.99. Who in the world is going to be too...

Is the secular economic season beginning to change (Part 2) – by New Deal democratThe selloff of a month ago may well be the harbinger of a fundamental change in the relationship between bond yields and stock prices, one that is likely to persist for the next 10 years or so, as  part of a very long term interest rate cycle that has tended to last about 60 years. This post is up at XE.com. ...

On Those Aluminum Tariffs The global price of aluminum fell below $1500 per metric ton by the end of 2015. By June 2017, it had risen to $1885 per metric ton. This source suggests that this price is even higher. So what happened yesterday?: The stock market dip reflects the enormous impact that a 25 percent tariff on imported steel and a 10 percent tariff on imported aluminum will have on the economy. That’s because so many American industries need steel...

Great news on job security, but on income line workers can hold back on breaking out the champagne Some really good news this morning, but a note to hold your horses on the celebration of at least one aspect of that news. Initial jobless claims, which I’ve called the single most positive data point in the entire economy, posted nearly a 50-year low at 210,000. On a population- or labor force-adjusted basis, it is an all time low. This, by the way,...