Tag Archives: US/Global Economics

I haven’t been bothering to comment on initial jobless claims reports lately, for the simple fact that every week it’s the same story:  they’re good! In fact, the initial jobless claims reports are probably the single most positive aspect of the entire economic expansion.  For all intents and purposes, nobody is being laid off! For initial jobless claims even to be giving a “caution signal” about the economy, I would need the YoY comparison to...

by David Zetland  (reposted from Aguanomics) What went wrong in Capetown? I asked that question of Mike Muller, who has been working on water issues there for decades. He referred me to this op/ed he wrote and — more important — the inadequate response from a local city councillor. [Tl;dr: Failure to invest against risk from “inadequate rain” — a problem that climate change will exacerbate.] Taps are running dry — and we are all to blame Water supply...

No, Matt Yglesias, Trump is *not* “probably gonna be re-elected” While I generally agree with the political and social observations of Matt Yglesias and Ezra Klein, their takes that involve the economy frequently drive me crazy. So it was this morning when I encountered these two tweets from Yglesias: This is just incredibly shallow analysis and, well, wrong! Presidential and midterm elections are completely different beasts. Midterms are decided...

A Kennedy-Reagan-Trump Fiscal Policy? Heather Long reports that the White House economists have no clue about the history of U.S. fiscal policy: President Trump’s policies are driving an economic turnaround that puts him in the company of transformative presidents such as John F. Kennedy and Ronald Reagan, White House economists said Wednesday as they unveiled their first “Economic Report of the President.” The report presents a highly optimistic view of...

Paying for Health Care Over Time Simon Wren Lewis illustrates the long-run government budget constraint with this tale: There are many reasons why, outside of a recession, deficits that, if sustained, would steadily increase the debt to GDP ratio may be bad for the economy, but let me give the most obvious here. For a given level of government spending, interest on debt has to come out of taxes. The higher the debt, the higher the taxes. That is a...

Shorting China I just saw “The China Hustle” as part of the Portland International Film Festival.  It’s a very (very) slick documentary about the listing of fraudulent Chinese companies on US exchanges during the post-financial crisis era.  The companies were mostly real, but their financial data were fictitious, although given the stamp of approval by the SEC, investment banks, specialty law firms and the big four accounting firms.  The movie might be...

A Critical Review of Jeffrey Miron’s Call to Slash Entitlements I accused John Cochrane of incoherent babbling on the Federal deficit issue noting his update where he flip flopped: He went from fiscal policy being sober to we are in dire straights just like that! Oh my the sky is falling. We have to take away those Social Security benefits that my generation have been paying into for 35 years. We cannot afford Federal health care spending. After all...

Via Naked Capitalism and published orinially at Grist  Polar Ice Is Lost at Sea: Our planet reached another miserable milestone earlier this week: Sea ice fell to its lowest level since human civilization began more than 12,000 years ago. That worrying development is just the latest sign that rising temperatures are inflicting lasting changes on the coldest corners of the globe. The new record low comes as the planet’s climate system shifts further from...

The Wall St. Journal quoted Peter Thiel’s business plans. It is mostly behind a paywall. By Peter Thiel          Sept. 12, 2014 11:25 a.m. ET What valuable company is nobody building? This question is harder than it looks, because your company could create a lot of value without becoming very valuable itself. Creating value isn’t enough—you also need to capture some of the value you create. New Republic points us to the politics of Democrats...

Fiscal Stability or Dire Straights: John Cochrane’s Latest Rant At times John Cochrane babbles on incoherently on what should be a straight forward issue. This post is one example: Once you net out interest costs, it is interesting how sober US fiscal policy actually has been over the years. In economic good times, we run primary surpluses. The impression that the US is always running deficits is primarily because of interest costs. Even the notorious...