Tag Archives: US/Global Economics

A note on producer prices and (possibly) cooling inflation One point I make from time to time is that, with seasonally adjusted data, YoY comparisons can miss, or at least lag, turning points. We *may* have such a situation developing with producer prices as evidenced by this morning’s report (Feb. 15). On a YoY basis, producer prices for finished goods (red in the graph below) are up 12.5%, while commodity prices are up 19.3%. Consumer...

RJS, Focus on Fracking; Global oil shortage at 440,000 barrels per day in January as OPEC’s output falls 749,000 barrels per day short; 2021’s oil shortage revised to 1.5 million barrels per day OPEC’s January Oil Market Report Thursday of the past week saw the release of OPEC’s February Oil Market Report, which includes details on OPEC & global oil data for January, and hence it gives us a picture of the global oil supply & demand...

The return of the “Oil Choke Collar”! For the first five years after the end of the Great Recession, one of the staples of my analysis was the concept of the “oil choke collar.” By that I meant that typically recessions had occurred after there was a sudden and sharp upward spike in the cost of gas, inflicting such pain that consumers cut back drastically on other spending – causing a prompt economic downturn. But what if, instead, gas prices rose...

Things Getting Very Worrisome  Yes, signs regarding a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine have gotten much worse in the last few days. I am hearing from my wife that Russian media are now claiming there are lots of US troops in Ukraine. Such a claim, not even backed up by some fake video, would clearly serve as an excuse for an invasion. There are also reports out of the Russian media that Putin feels that he was not treated well in Beijing....

RJS: Oil supplies at a 10 year low; SPR at a 19 year low; total oil & products supplies at 7 1/2 year low after across-the-board draw  The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending February 4th indicated that after a drop in our oil imports, a jump in our oil exports, and an increase in our refining, we again had to pull oil out of our stored...

Gas prices sound a consumer warning I got a note yesterday from a fellow forecaster pointing out that crude oil prices have once again made new 7 year highs. This is something I also highlighted in my “Weekly Indicators” column on Saturday. As I write this on Wednesday morning, West Texas Intermediate Crude trades at slightly under $90/barrel, yet another new 7+ year high.  How much trouble does this portend for the economy? Potentially, a...

I find myself disagreeing completely with Ezra Klein. This is very unusual and I feel compelled to blog about it (note you should not feel at all compelled to read this post which is self therapy). I am commenting on a twitter thread here. I am going to cut and paste a lot (because I hate Twitter and don’t want you to go there (as I do many times a day)). It began with Larry Summers who wrote “There are things MMT says that are true and...

Noah Smith (and many others) is irritated by a puff piece about Stephanie Kelton and modern monetery theory MMT by Jeanna Smialak in the New York Times. I am not interested in Smialak’s article. I think that Noah sums up his critique here very well “The article then demonstrates that it has little notion of what separates MMT from mainstream thinking: ‘M.M.T. theorists argue that society should feel capable of spending to achieve its goals to...

Can Ukraine Become A New Austria?  In this Sunday’s Washington Post, columnist David von Drehle suggests that a way out of the difficult Russia/Ukraine situation would be for Ukraine to become like what happened with Austria in 1955 and since; it formally became officially neutral, not joining either NATO or the Warsaw Pact, and has remained so since.   For Ukraine, this would in effect grant Putin his demand that Ukraine not join NATO, although...

Oil supplies at a 10 year low;  SPR at a 19 year low, total oil & products supplies at 7 1/2 year low; Omicron hit to demand leads to largest 5 week increase of gasoline inventories in 32 years RJS: The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA, Focus on Fracking US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending January 28th indicated that despite a jump in our oil imports and a drop in our oil...