Tag Archives: US/Global Economics

Nick Rowe was looking for the role of money in the Heuristic Macro Model, which is often used to introduce students to Trade economics. The problem he discovered is that there is only a role for money if there is friction in the model, and therefore a two-household (or household-firm or firm-firm) model makes money if not superfluous, then at least a poor substitute to direct barter. Following is a “finger exercise” for introductory economics the...

by Joseph Joyce The Need for a Global Corporate Tax Regime When the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development began its call for a reform of the rules of global taxes in order to clamp down on the avoidance of taxes by multinational corporations, its efforts looked quixotic. But the OECD persisted, and U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is now participating in negotiations with the other OECD members to reform the (non-)system....

by New Deal democrat Housing and the economy, now and in 2022 – recession caution? My long-form review and forecast of the housing market and its potential effect on the 2022 economy is up at Seeking Alpha. If the market stays like 2014 when interest rates went up, no biggie. But if it’s more like the 1950s, we have a problem. As usual, clicking over and reading should be informative for you, and it rewards me a little bit for my...

New jobless claims rise slightly, expect a big payrolls gain tomorrow New jobless claims are likely to the most important weekly economic data for the next 3 to 6 months. They are going to tell us whether, as the number of those vaccinated continues to increase, there will be a veritable surge in renewed commercial and social activities and attendant consumer spending, leading in turn to a strong rebound in monthly employment gains.Three weeks ago...

This may be the most important housing chart of springtime 2021 My longform housing market analysis is almost complete, and will probably get posted later today or tomorrow at Seeking Alpha. I’ll post a link here once that is done. In the meantime, consider the following. The Case Shiller national house price index had another sharp increase in February, and is now up 11.2% YoY, the highest rate since the days of the housing bubble in 2002...

The Iran-China Deal  Yes, this 25-year deal is a big deal, just recently signed and not getting much attention in the US media.  Juan Cole has called it the most important deal involving China and the Middle East since the days of the Mongol Empire in the 1200s, when both what was then Persia and China were actually under the same ruler.  This $400 billion deal was signed on the 50th anniversary of the opening of diplomatic relations between Iran...

An Investment in the Future It is said that Eisenhower brought home the Autobahn; that he foresaw the need for airports. Let us say that President Eisenhower, seeing these needs for infrastructure, brought America into the 20th Century, and say, “Thanks, Ike.” Through the years, the interstate gave everyone access to work, to recreation, to their Doctor, to the shopping mall, … ; Today, for these same reasons and more, every household should have...

Is the Biden Presidency The Final Triumph Of The Silent Generation?, Econospeak, Barkley Rosser The who?  Never heard of them?  Or never heard from them? More like the latter. After all they have not been called “Silent” for nothing. Yes, it seems that we alternate generations between large noisy ones and smaller quieter ones.  The Greatest Generation survived the Great Depression and won World War II, and they certainly let everybody hear...

Commenter R.J.S., MARKETWATCH 666 Personal Income down 7.1% in February, Personal Spending down 1.0%, PCE Price Index up 0.2% The February report on Personal Income and Outlays from the Bureau of Economic Analysis gives us nearly half the data that will go into 1st quarter GDP, since it gives us 2 months of data on our personal consumption expenditures (PCE), which accounts for nearly 70% of GDP, and the PCE price index, the inflation gauge the...

The Real Border Crisis, The Atlantic, Adam Serwer, March 2021 This border surge is no different than 2019 and going back a decade. It will peak in May and the decline. What is the border crisis? Is it the recent surge of migrants, or is it the treatment of those migrants in detention facilities? The answer to that question—or whether you consider the situation at the border to be a crisis at all—most likely determines what you think the Biden...