Ergodicity — a questionable assumption (wonkish) .[embedded content] Paul Samuelson once famously claimed that the ‘ergodic hypothesis’ is essential for advancing economics from the realm of history to the realm of science. But is it really tenable to assume — as Samuelson and most other mainstream economists — that ergodicity is essential to economics? Sometimes ergodicity is mistaken for stationarity. But although all ergodic processes are stationary,...

Weekly Indicators for April 29 – May 3 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. Very little change this week in any of the indicators, but what there was had everything to do with the frame of reference, because all gas prices under $3/gallon have now dropped out of the three year reference period. Which means that – *relatively* speaking – gas prices are currently cheap! As usual,...

Monte Carlo simulation explained (student stuff) .[embedded content]

No not so fast there buddy. ..  According to MMT the US government is “borrowing money!” from the tax exempt foreign divisions of these multinationals…It’s not just transferring retained earnings into foreign UST accounts at the Fed as part of a scheme to reduce overall corporate tax liabilities… that’s not what is happening..I wonder how many people know these “buybacks” are mostly unpaid taxes distributed to investors in US ?In the case of $AAPL profits are kept offshore in 0% tax...

Have to see if this large month end settlement pattern continues…. It may be that first of the month fiscal transfers are getting so large these days that they are destabilizing reserve assets at Depositories… so Treasury might be scheduling most of the settlements the day before to reduce reserve balances within the same regulatory period as the first of the month…Treasury issuance is not “borrowing!” despite what MMT asserts…Treasury issuance is skewed this month. There are net paydowns...

by Megan Messerly One more ACA rule was finalized by Biden today. Not something huge in numbers; but something which will impact a few thousand people. People who were allowed to stay in the US or under a program called.  Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals or DACA. A coalition of states, Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Nebraska, South Carolina, West Virginia, Kansas and Mississippi argue the rule oversteps the “scope of executive power.” 5th...

Saturday stuff to quibble about. It appears Indiana Fever’s newest basketball player, Catlin Clark is being mobbed and followed as she travels to other cities to potentially play. It was bad in DFW Airport, Clark and her teammates were followed by reporters, with assorted other onlookers also wanting an eyeful of the star. The Indiana Fever team landed in Dallas via commercial air travel ahead of their preseason game against the Wings on Friday...

I veckans avsnitt av Starta Pressarna  fortsätter debatten om det finanspolitiska ramverket och behovet av stora framtida investeringar i infrastruktur, bostäder, försvar och energiomställning. Medverkande i det här avsnittet är — förutom Daniel Suhonen — bland annat Lars Calmfors, Elinor Odeberg och Max Jerneck. Som alltid på den här podden — intressant, slagkraftigt och tankeväckande!

This guy is Biden‘s chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors, and he is totally, laughably, clueless.  This is absolutely MUST WATCH! https://mikenormaneconomics.blogspot.com/2024/05/jared-bernstein-total-idiot-you-have-to.html

You know that scene in The Big Short, when after the collapse there's a distinct vibe of "man that was so obvious, how were people so impossibly stupid?"If you are loaning money to the Federal Government (ie if you own government bonds), the *only* reason you should feel… https://t.co/KgutE7xeIv— Erik Voorhees (@ErikVoorhees) May 3, 2024