If you are attached to the monetarist view or any single variable form of analysis, you will subject yourself to suffering and losses.

Ukraine — fighting for all of us .[embedded content] To all my brothers and sisters in Ukraine, fighting the Russian invasion for one year now. May God be with you. Never give in. Never give up.

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The “gold standard” of jobs data shows a strong rebound in Q3 2022  – by New Deal democrat The preliminary estimate for the Q3 2022 QCEW was released yesterday. Although the monthly nonfarm payrolls report gets all the glory, it is only a survey. The QCEW is an actual census of the roughly 95% of all businesses paying unemployment insurance. It is reported with about a 6 month delay, and is not seasonally adjusted. The bottom line is while...

Initial claims continue recent excellent streak  – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims continued their recent excellent reports, as there were only 192,000 new claims, down -3,000 from the week before, and close to their 50+ year lows of last March and April. The 4 week average increased 1,500 to 191,250, still an excellent number. Continuing claims, with a one week delay, declined -37,000 to 1,654,000, still in their slightly elevated...

There are two good articles to be read here. Most is drawn from The Atlantic article and the other from The Detroit News. Some of the information is pulled from other articles to which the links are in the article. EVs may be the wave of the future. I think we will need better technology to power the electric vehicles and also lessen the energy pollution needed to make them. “Electric Vehicles Are a Status Symbol Now,” The Atlantic, Andrew...

Getting causality into statistics Because statistical analyses need a causal skeleton to connect to the world, causality is not extra-statistical but instead is a logical antecedent of real-world inferences. Claims of random or “ignorable” or “unbiased” sampling or allocation are justified by causal actions to block (“control”) unwanted causal effects on the sample patterns. Without such actions of causal blocking, independence can only be treated as a...

Both India and China are importing Russian crude at a record pace.Energy Intelligence: at least 20 trading companies—but probably a lot more—are sending Russian oil around the world.According to Trafigura, the total number of tankers that have been “reserved” to carry Russian oil could be as high as 600, of which 400 crude tankers.Vitol, Trafigura, BP, Shell, Equinor—all of them upped and left whatever business they had in Russia, leaving an empty space. It did not take very long for this...