1) Soft Landing, Hard Landing, No Landing?1 The COVID years just get weirder and weirder. The COVID hangover is especially weird. We’ve all been hoping for inflation to decelerate, but it remains stubbornly high. Meanwhile the economy is decelerating across the board, but remains…surprisingly strong. You see it in almost all the data. For example, below is a chart of Real GDP and payroll growth on a one year basis. You’ve had a pretty significant slowdown in both. But they’re not...

Video and transcript.Geopolitical Economy ReporInside Latin America’s new currency plan, with Ecuador’s presidential candidate Andrés Arauz Ben Norton interviews Andrés Arauz

Non-manipulability and the limits of potential outcome models The Potential Outcome framework starts by defining the potential outcomes with reference to a manipulation. In doing so it makes a distinction between attributes or pre-treatment variables which are fixed for the units in the population, and causes, which are potentially manipulable. This is related to the connection between causal statements and randomized experiments. The causes are...

I almost, no, I DID, get pissed off making this. Please watch.

Come give me love .[embedded content] Det är en tröst att Teds och Kenneths underbara texter och musik fortfarande finns kvar. Men att de inte vandrar vid min sida är svårt att förlika sig med. Första gången jag hörde Ted var jag femton år gammal. Under mina tonår var han en stor idol. Det kommer han alltid att vara.

On February 14 a high ranking NATO source, cited by Bloomberg, warned that NATO members were preparing plans for the alliance to involve itself in multiple conflicts simultaneously - including conflicts beyond its traditional areas of responsibility. During meetings in Brussels on February 14-15 NATO Defence Ministers will sign a classified guidebook containing plans of action for "high intensity" conflicts and conflicts "beyond the area of responsibility" of the alliance, which will include...

It’s Wednesday and a lot is going on. The RBA governor appeared before the Commonwealth Senate Estimates Committee today and demonstrated what a troglodyte he is, defending massive bank profits and deliberately trying to cause unemployment. Meanwhile, US data shows that inflation has peaked and is now falling. The pace of the deceleration is picking up. Meanwhile – MMTed – is active and our 4-week course began today (see details below) and we are helping a new radio show to launch next week...

Marc Chandler is being interviewed by Dale Pinkert during the F.A.C.E. webinar. Marc believes EURUSD can see $1.0450. He's characterizing this Dollar Bounce as a Bear Market Rally. Subscribe to attend for FREE using the following link: http://bit.ly/2WhbchO

FTSE keeps making new all time highs… hard to understand vs US stocks which remain discounted ….  ? BOE has been significantly increasing UK risk free rate also…One difference between the US and UK systems is that BOE never did very much QE in the first place and perhaps more importantly doesn’t count BOE liabilities to UK banks against the banks regulatory total asset constraints…May be allowing UK banks to apply higher prices to these financial assets vs. otherwise…

Measured by actual rather than fictitious prices, inflation is decelerating substantially towards the Fed target ADDENDUM: the huge impact of shelter  – by New Deal democrat For the last year, consumer prices have mainly been about two things: (1) the huge rise, and then fall, in gas prices; and (2) the phantom menace of owner’s equivalent rent (OER) dragging shelter prices higher, even as actual house prices peaked, and new rental...