The Angry Bear

December JOLTS report: with Omicron raging, the pool of potential employees refuses to fill, meaning more record wage gains The Census Bureau has started to release the JOLTS report earlier in the month. So we got December’s report yesterday as opposed to in a week or two.   Last month I introduced the idea of a game of musical chairs, where employers added or took away chairs, and employees tried to best allocate themselves among the chairs....

Manufacturing continues strong in January; construction continued to sag in December As usual, the first data for last month starts out with the ISM manufacturing report. This index, especially its new orders subindex, is an important short leading indicator for the production sector.  In January the index declined from 58.8 to 57.6, as did the more leading new orders subindex, which declined from 61.0 to 57.9 (note the breakeven point...

My mind goes back to 2008. I was recently tempted to ask why bad loans by banks are a public problem. I was tempted to say that the bank made the loan, so it is their problem. If enough debtors default that the bank fails, so what? Then I remember the very appealing logic of the argument that, while other banks are free to save Lehman if they choose, no public money should be involved. That didn’t work out very well. The tempting pure market let...

Tax churn.  Or so I will suggest. There are two basic ways to improve the economic position of disadvantaged Americans using the income tax system.  The first approach, targeting, uses refundable tax credits to put more money in the hands of lower-income households.  Subsidies decrease for households with higher earnings.  The second approach is to use a Universal Basic Income, which gives refundable tax credits to everyone, regardless of...

 by New Deal democrat My long leading forecast through the end of 2022 My long leading forecast that goes 12 months out is now up at Seeking Alpha. I am as nerdy as can be, and follow the same indicators over and over, no matter what their message. And their message has been changing over the past 6 months. To find out what that means for the latter half of this year, click on over and read the article. As usual, this will equip you...

Surgery Tomorrow  I shall be having a parathyroid removed tomorrow (Feb. 2) at University of Virginia hospital. Will be going over this evening to avoid freezing fog.  So, I shall be out of commission for a while. Barkley Rosser

Prof. Heather Cox Richardson (substack.com) “Letters From An American,” January 31. 2022 There are more topics covered in yesterday’s Letter than I can list in the title. It is an interesting mixed bag of experiences we are enduring and what is being reported. I have also included the links below if you wish to do a deeper dive on each topic. It was yesterday, I had read and heard a C&L report featuring George Conway telling CNN trump...

Oil prices hit 7 year high, natural gas hits 14 year high on largest one day price jump on record; natural gas supplies see largest draw this winter, Focus on Fracking, RJS Oil prices rose for a sixth straight week and eclipsed the 7 year high hit last week on heightened tension over Ukraine, tight supplies, and perceptions of rising demand…after rising 2.2% to $85.14 a barrel last week on supply disruptions in the Middle East and on rising...

Total supplies of oil & products at 7 1/2 year low even after largest 4 week build of gasoline stocks in 32 years SPR inventories are at a new 19 year low; gasoline inventories are up most in any 4 week period since Jan 1990 as gasoline demand, ex worst Covid drops, are at a 10 year low; imports of gasoline are at a 87 week low; total inventories of oil & all products made from it are at 7 1/2 year low The Latest US Oil Supply and...