Mosler Economics

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index Highlights In a confirmation of strong levels of job openings in the JOLTS report, small businesses are reporting the most difficulty in finding qualified workers since 2007, pointing to the risk ahead of wage pressures. Boosted by employment, the small business optimism index inched 2 tenths higher in September to a slightly higher-than-expected 96.1. Plans to increase employment are also up, at their best level of the year, while capital outlay plans are...

Even Luxembourg peaked after oil prices collapsed: Ag slowdown imperils state revenue By Donnelle Eller Oct 12 (Des Moines Register) — Money coming into Iowa’s government coffers was flat the first quarter of this fiscal year, raising concern about how big an effect the slowing farm economy could have on the state budget. State revenues — income tax paid by workers and corporations, along with sales tax paid at malls, restaurants and bars, among other sources — hit $1.77...

Growth rates still trending lower: Growth rate edging higher from very low levels: Back down to 1% for Q3: On October 5th Saudi price cuts were announced, as they increased discounts to various benchmark prices by substantial amounts. If the reports were accurate, the discount increases create a downward price spiral dynamic as previously described. However, since that announcement oil prices have increased approximately 10% driven by buyers reacting to various news reports...

Sales to inventory ratios still looking way high to me, as happens entering a recession: Wholesale Trade Highlights Wholesale inventories look to be pulling down on third-quarter GDP, up only 0.1 percent in August following a downwardly revised 0.3 percent decline in July. But relative to sales, which fell 1.0 percent in August and fell 0.3 percent in July, inventories are looking heavy. The stock-to-sales ratio rose to 1.31 in September from July’s 1.30. Inventories relative to...

As suspected, the drop in gas prices was pretty much a net 0 for GDP: Consumers are spending a lot more of their gasoline savings than estimated, report says Americans spend majority of money saved at the petrol pump JPMorgan: Consumers Already Spent Most Savings From Cheap Gas Pump Prices > The post Gas savings spent appeared first on The Center of the Universe.

Exports down but so are imports, indicating a weak global economy and continued euro support from trade net flows: Germany : Merchandise Trade German exports plunge at fastest pace since global financial crisis Oct 8 (Reuters) — German exports plunged in August. Data from the Federal Statistics Office showed seasonally-adjusted exports sliding by 5.2 percent to 97.7 billion euros month-on-month, the steepest drop since January 2009. Imports tumbled by 3.1 percent to 78.2 billion...

Now looking like this peaked as oil prices collapsed: Consumer Credit Highlights Revolving credit continues to show life, up a solid $4.0 billion in August for a sixth straight gain. Gains in this reading, which have been scarce this recovery, perhaps suggest that consumers are growing less reluctant to run up their credit cards, which would be good news for retailers going into the holidays. Non-revolving credit, driven by both vehicle financing and student financing which is tracked in...

Volkswagen to Pare, Delay Capital Investments Oct 6 (WSJ) — Volkswagen AG plans to slash an €86 billion ($96 billion) investment plan and step up cost-cutting as it grapples with fallout from its emissions scandal, Chief Executive Matthias Müllersaid on Tuesday. Global Oil to Cut Spending by $130 Billion, OPEC Says Germany : Industrial Production Highlights Industrial production was weaker than expected in August. A 1.2 percent monthly fall exactly reversed an upwardly revised gain...

They say its the strong $ that’s hurting exports. I say it’s the drop in oil related capex after the price collapse: This is what news headlines have been looking like (not good): From Rüdiger (top German Specialist) research: German new business orders for August were broadly lower. Compared to July, which was revised downward, they fell a seasonally adjusted 2.1pc. Compared to August 2014 orders rose 3.4pc. However, there are two critical factors behind this figure....

Their price cuts reported yesterday indicate they’d like to pump more: Gap widening as previously suspected, even with lower oil prices: International Trade Highlights A surge in imports of new iPhones helped feed what was an unusually wide trade gap in August of $48.3 billion, well up from July’s revised $41.8 billion. But cell phones, at $2.1 billion, make up only a portion of the gap with a drop in exports the most salient factor. Exports were down nearly across the board...