Someone else agrees with me about the tariffs and the global trade collapse: CNBC: The trade war is weighing ‘like a big, dark cloud’ on the global economy, says Christine Lagarde. And this would function like a tax increase: Bloomberg: President Trump Doubles Down on Call for Negative Interest Rates. Today’s tariff induced bad news:
Read More »Chicago Fed, US PMI, Euro area
Highlights A snapback for manufacturing production led a jump into the positive column for the national activity index which at 0.10 marks the second positive score in three months. Yet the 3-month average, at minus 0.06, remains in the negative column for the seventh straight month. Manufacturing has been the center of weakness for this indicator but posted a strong gain in August’s industrial production report. Offsetting this strength was a drop below 50 to 49.1 for the...
Read More »Rails, Bank loans, Oil rig count, Trump comments
Still contracting: Commercial loan growth has flattened this year: Oil capex seems to be headed south again. Might take higher prices to bring it back. And the way the decline curves work output should be peaking soon and then declining: Highlights The Baker Hughes North American rig count is down 33 rigs in the September 20 week to 987. The U.S. rig count is down 18 rigs from last week to 868 and is down 185 rigs from last year at this time. The Canadian count is down...
Read More »Trump initiatives
Today happens to be the eco strike: Trump grants tariff exemptions to plastic straws, dog leashes and more from China Must be some defense agreement no one else knows about: Trump sanctions Iran’s central bank in wake of strikes on Saudi oil facilities No end to tariffs in sight, and no interest in helping Trump politically: China officials have changed their travel schedule and were headed back to China earlier than planned, according to Nicole Rolf, the Montana Farm...
Read More »New home sales, Manufacturing surveys, Trump on Fed, Pence, Turkey
Up some for the month, but remain weak and depressed historically, especially on a per capita basis: Manufacturing surveys continue to forecast weakness: I think what he wants rate cuts because he (and most everyone else) believes that will make the dollar go down which he further believes will reduce the trade deficit and support economic growth: And the VP isn’t far behind the big guy: Pence says other countries should ‘emulate’ US economic policies to catch up Vice...
Read More »Japan, China, Housing starts
The global trade collapse from tariffs continues: They all have it backwards- it’s the 5th deadly innocent fraud- as the great global trade collapse continues: Blackstone’s Schwarzman: China’s economic ‘miracle’ came at the expense of the US and the West “That leads the developed world to say to China: ‘We’ve got to rebalance this. It’s working for you. It’s not working for us,’” says Blackstone CEO Stephen Schwarzman. Up a bit this month, but levels remain historically...
Read More »Industrial production, China, NY Fed
Up a bit this month but the chart isn’t looking promising: New York Fed’s New SCE Household Spending Survey Shows Expected Growth Of Household Spending Will Slow Today, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data updated its Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) Household Spending Survey, which provides information on individuals’ experiences and expectations regarding household spending.
Read More »NY manufacturing, China
Not good:
Read More »Retail sales, Consumer Sentiment, Rails, Sea containers, Wholesale sales, Employment, Hours worked
Up a bit but still looking a lot lower than a few months ago: “Deep in contraction” Analyst Opinion of Container Movements Simply looking at this month versus last month – there were only marginal changes to weak numbers. The year-over-year rate of growth improved for imports and marginally worsened for exports. Still, year-to-date growth for both imports and exports remain deep in contraction. The three-month rolling averages for exports and imports are also in...
Read More »JOLTS, Consumer credit, Las Vegas visitors
Rolling over: Rolling over: Rolling over:
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