Mosler Economics

This component is going nowhere: Still trying to catch up from the oil capex collapse of 2016 and covid collapse: Not good: This is an all time low as people scramble to get extra jobs to deal with higher prices,like paying rent, for example: Oil prices taking a breather with the announcements of releases from strategic petroleum reserves. Price direction, however, is instead set by Saudi OSP premiums to benchmarks which were just raised for the 3rd month and this time to...

This could easily drive oil up past $200/barrel and trigger a serious recession. This survey/forecast is higher than precovid. The full employment report comes out Friday: Gross new hires have been trending lower: Corporate profits jumped after the covid dip and have recently flattened:

Recovered to trend but only because this chart isn’t adjusted for inflation: Nor does the narrative that consumers have gone crazy buying goods seem to be holding up:Not a lot of growth here:

Gone flat post covid, adjusted for inflation: The post covid slump continues, and now there are war disruptions: US Consumer Sentiment Lowest since 2011The University of Michigan consumer sentiment for the US fell to 59.7 in March of 2022 from 62.8 in February, below market forecasts of 61.4, preliminary estimates showed. It is the lowest reading since November of 2011, as inflation expectations rose sharply due to a surge in fuel prices exacerbated by the Russian invasion...

Slowly returning to the pre covid trend: Still below the pre covid trend line:

Low and slipping: GDP tracking at 0:

Post war slowdown continues: Below the 2018 highs, but still growing from the covid dip: Adjusted for inflation, the slope is downward:

Post was slump continues: Mortgage applications and housing in general remains far weaker than it was when rates were far higher and the population was a lot lower as well:

Still slowly working its way back to the pre covid trend: New rigs continue to come online, but it won’t interfere with Saudi/Russian price setting until sufficient production comes online to reduce Saudi sales. And right now sales are going up, indicating that demand for oil at the Saudi’s prices is increasing, as the Saudis set price and let their refiners buy all they want at their posted prices: As previously discussed, Saudi OSP’s (official selling price spreads vs...

Fading, and this series is not inflation adjusted: Still high but falling fast: Still at only .1% GDP growth for Q1: