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Tag Archives: China

Everything’s under control, China edition

Daiwa Securities has forecast Armageddon. They say that over-investment in China in recent years has created a debt bubble so great that Chinese authorities would not able to manage its collapse, resulting in a debt deflationary spiral which would make 2008 look like a walk in the park. Such a meltdown would, in their words, "send the global economy into a tailspin".But they also outline another scenario, in which China's economy undergoes a nasty, possibly prolonged recession, from which...

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If we don’t understand both sides of China’s balance sheet, we understand neither

In-depth analysis on Credit Writedowns Pro. By Michael Pettis originally published on 1 September 2015. With so much happening in China in the past month it seems that there are a number of very specific topics that any essay on China should focus. I worry, however, that we get so caught up staring at strange clumps of trees that we risk losing sight of the forest. What happened in July this year, and again in August, or in June 2013, or a number of other times, were not unexpected shocks...

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“Quantitative Tightening” is a myth

(But that doesn't mean we don't have a problem).Deutsche Bank has frightened everyone by warning that if China sold substantial quantities of US Treasuries (USTs) to support the yuan, this would amount to a substantial tightening of US monetary policy.The reason why China accumulated USTs in the first place was because of its trade surplus: The excess of exports over import sucked dollars into China, where the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) exchanged them for domestic currency (yuan). The...

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Do markets determine the value of the RMB?

In-depth analysis on Credit Writedowns Pro. By Michael Pettis Last Tuesday the PBoC surprised the markets with a partial deregulation of the currency regime, prompting a great deal of discussion and debate about the value of the RMB. Part of the discussion was informed by a consensus developing in one part of the market that the RMB is no longer undervalued but is in fact overvalued. Why? Because if left to the “market”, that is if the PBoC stopped intervening, the excess of dollar supply...

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China’s stock markets and revisiting 2011 predictions

In-depth analysis on Credit Writedowns Pro. By Michael Pettis originally written on 31 Jul 2015 I plan to post a new entry very soon but before doing so I wanted to say a few things about the stock markets, which continue to be insane (but not unexpectedly so) and then repost a blog entry that is nearly five years old. By the time I published my latest (July 17) blog entry Beijing had managed to stop the panic with the use of what I called “brute force”, by which I meant that there was...

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Never mind Greece, look at China

While all eyes are focused on Greece, there is a potentially far more important crash going on.Via Sober Look comes this pair of charts:China's stock market is crashing. It's very evidently a bubble bursting. The question is, what will be the knock-on effect to the Chinese economy, and indeed to the whole of South East Asia, Brutal sell-offs of this kind are rarely without economic cost, especially when the bubble is debt financed (as this one is). I can't see this ending well.Related...

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