Tag Archives: Hot Topics

Hmm. Maybe Trump *does* have a point about the lying press after all. Here’s the Reuters headline:“Biden, Trump to woo union workers in Michigan as auto strikes grow”So where are Trump and Biden going to woo union workers?“Former President Donald Trump is scheduled to visit a Macomb County automotive supplier of engine and transmission parts Wednesday, the day after President Joe Biden is set to visit a United Auto Workers picket line in Wayne...

Weekly Indicators for September 18 – 22 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. With interest rates at or near multi-decade highs, and the existing home market completely seized up, the background financial condition have trended even worse. Meanwhile the shorter term indicators may be getting reading to peak. But their previous sharp increase has worked its way into most of the coincident...

With sales near 25 year lows, the huge divergence between the existing and new home markets continues  – by New Deal democrat The drastic bifurcation between the new and existing home markets continues. Existing home sales fell to 4.04 million annualized in August, the lowest level of the entire past 10+ years except for last December and January. In fact, with the additional exception of a number of months during the great home bust during and...

Open Thread: NPs and PAs are Handling Increasingly More Primary Care Visits, Medscape, Avery Hurt “Healthcare Primary Care visits to NPs and PAs, also known as advanced practice providers, have been rising in recent years compared to doctor visits, according to the latest studies. The proportion of Medicare visits that NPs and PAs delivered nearly doubled in the 7-year period 2013-2019 (14% in 2013 to 26% in 2019), according to research published...

Initial jobless claims: unresolved seasonality obscures cautionary YoY comparisons  – by New Deal democrat For the last few weeks, I have been highlighting that there is likely some unresolved post-pandemic seasonality in the initial claims numbers. That certainly looked like the case this week, as a sharp decline mirrored a similar sharp decline 52 weeks ago. To wit: initial claims declined -20,000 to 201,000, the lowest number since...

Using the stock market and unemployment as an easy and timely coincident recession indicator  – by New Deal democrat My fellow forecaster Bob Dieli has a measure he calls “DeltaDelta,” basically an average of the YoY% change in the stock market and the unemployment rate (which hopefully he won’t mind me mentioning here). It called to mind that occasionally in the past I have noted that a YoY decline in stock prices is a yellow flag for a...

A few years back, my chairman was a big enthusiast of NFTs (nonfungible tokens). In one conversation I recall, I pointed to a picture of the founding chair of the department and suggested he could digitize it and sell it to alumni as an NFT. He said he thought that was a good idea. When I laughed, he said “I’m not joking.” I replied: “That’s what I’m afraid of.”NFTs have always been an example of The Greater Fool Theory of investing, which holds that...

Timothy Snyder is the Richard C. Levin Professor of History at Yale University, a permanent fellow at the Institute for Human Sciences in Vienna and an expert on Russian and Eastern European history. Yesterday, he narrated an essay on his subscription-only Substack site “Thinking about . . . “ on the occasion of Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s visit to the US and expression of gratitude for UN support. Snyder believes that we should be thanking Ukranians....

The long awaited downturn in multi-family construction may finally have happened  – by New Deal democrat With the relative fading of manufacturing in importance to the US economy, the leading construction sector has assumed even greater importance. And the most important data about construction are the leading, and long leading, data about residential housing construction. To give a little additional framework, typically the first data to...

This is Part 1 of a three-part story of how politics and delays backed by commercial interests and business sponsor groups delayed and eventually killed a bill meant to aid Ohio citizens. Kind of a forerunner to what may happen if Congress ever promotes a bill for healthcare-for-all. I will post the other two parts over the next two days, We sought a cause of death for HB 135. We found it … and something far bigger, WSYX, Darrel Rowland Part 1...