Tag Archives: Hot Topics

MIdyear update: the state of the big monthly coincident indicators  – by New Deal democrat Let’s take a look at the important monthly coincident indicators that the NBER has indicated they weight most heavily, along with quarterly real GDP, in gauging whether the economy is expanding or contracting. Remember, a recession isn’t actually defined by 2 quarters of negative GDP, but rather by a significant decline in jobs, income, sales, and...

May JOLTS report: continued decelerating trend, but still extremely positive  – by New Deal democrat Let me start out with the statement that has been my touchstone for the JOLTS report for the last year or more: for the last several years, the jobs market has been a game of “reverse musical chairs,” where there are always more chairs than participants. Those employers whose chairs weren’t filled had to increase their wage and/or...

Initial jobless claims: moving closer to a red flag warning  – by New Deal democrat Initial claims for jobless benefits rose 12,000 last week to 248,000. The 4 week average declined -3,500 to 253,250. With a one week lag, continued claims declined -13,000 to 1.20 million: More importantly for forecasting purposes, initial claims are up 17.1% YoY. The more important 4 week average is up 18.1%, and continuing claims are up 27.0%: This is...

The Medicare Advantage Quality Bonus Program, Urban Institute, Laura Skopec and Robert A. Berenson The following is an introduction and a portion of a very readable report to which the link can be found at the end of this introduction. The findings are similar as to what Kip Sullivan and others have been reporting all along. To which I have reported and confirmed on Angry Bear on numerous occasions. The one liner finding to this being, the Quality...

A comment taken from Ken Melvin’s commentary “The Coup.” Ken Melvin discussing with JackD. Yeah. Sen, Whitehouse makes this distinction: In effect, there are three Federalist Societies. The first (Federal Society) one most lawyers know from law school. It is, for the most part, a debating society, made up of like-minded aspiring lawyers drawn to conservative ideas and judicial doctrine. They organize seminars and invite academics, and...

Can architects and designers make a difference in the climate emergency? Carbon Upfront, Lloyd Alter, One prominent English architect says we should just shut up and draw, we don’t matter much anyway. I am single-minded when teaching sustainable design at Toronto Metropolitan University: it is all about carbon, carbon, carbon, the issue of our time. My students are urban, interior, and fashion designers in The Creative School at TMU....

Infidel talks about the costly flops by the movie making behemoth executives and brought to us at our nearby Big Screen theater only to be disappointed and bored whichever comes first. Hopefully, there is good buttered popcorn . . . Infidel753: Cultural dinosaurs and creative exhaustion, Infidel753 Blog It’s no secret that American movies are in the doldrums.  By a recent estimate, all of Disney’s last eight big films flopped, losing a total...

A brief essay for July 4, 2023  – by New Deal democrat Selections from Brutus, the anti-federalist who argued against the Constitution’s institution of the Supreme Court: “When great and extraordinary powers are vested in any man, or body of men, which in their exercise, may operate to the oppression of the people, it is of high importance that powerful checks should be formed to prevent the abuse of it. “[T]hose who are to be vested with...

Manufacturing and construction sectors continue downward pull on economy  – by New Deal democrat As usual, we start the month with new manufacturing and construction data. The ISM manufacturing index goes all the way back to the 1940s, and has been a very good short leading indicator of recession throughout that time (although nothing’s perfect!). However, since the “China shock” started 20 years ago, with so much offshoring of...

SUNDAY, JULY 2, 2023 Weekly Indicators for June 26 – 30 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. Movement among the indicators continues to be slow as molasses, but an important bifurcation stands out: indicators focusing on services continue to show good growth, while indicators focusing on goods are either stalled or outright contracting. As usual, clicking over and reading will...