Tag Archives: Hot Topics

Pent-up demand and sales: an update  – by New Deal democrat There’s no big economic news today. So while we wait to see if initial jobless claims continue to worsen tomorrow, and what happens with real personal spending and income, as well as real business sales on Friday, let me point you to an updated detailed discussion of why the Fed’s rate hikes haven’t yet caused the economy to turn down (hint: gas prices plus pent-up demand in several...

Higher new home sales, with lower prices in May: good!  – by New Deal democrat Let me start with my usual caveat about new home sales: while they are the most leading of all housing metrics, they are very noisy and heavily revised. With that out of the way, the bottom line is that they offered pretty definitive evidence that sales have bottomed, while prices are still declining, at least on a YoY basis. Which makes sense, because as I always...

Corporate profits have contributed disproportionately to inflation. How should policymakers respond? Economic Policy Institute, Josh Bivens The inflation spike of 2021 and 2022 has presented real policy challenges. In order to better understand this policy debate, it is imperative to look at prices and how they are being affected. The price of just about everything in the U.S. economy can be broken down into the three main components of...

House prices increase for third straight month, but Case Shiller index now negative YoY  – by New Deal democrat Seasonally adjusted house prices through April as measured by both the FHFA (red in the graph below) and Case Shiller (blue) Indexes rose, the former by 0.7% and the latter by 0.5%. This is the third straight increase in a row. Thus house prices have probably bottomed. But on a YoY basis, prices have continued to decelerate sharply,...

This is not a bad idea. It is one issue long over due and needed if we are to attract more people into the Labor Force. It should be government sponsored to cut the costs of it. To Increase the Supply of Workers, Our Economy Needs Childcare, Roosevelt Institute, Mike Konczal Tuesday February 23, the Department of Commerce announced the CHIPS for America Funding Opportunity. This action is a part of the bipartisan CHIPS and Science Act designed...

Yeah, I left one part of the title out . . . “Job Loss.” I do not believe there will be any. If there is it will probably be minimal and there will be other jobs we can go too. I believe in the ability of people to think there way out of things, making decisions on the spot, and based upon the knowledge they have while adapting to a changing environment. Believe it or not, that is much of supply chain. Dean Baker says the same. Only for different...

New Deal democrats Weekly Indicators for June 19 – 23 2023  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. When nothing dramatic is happening, high frequency information can be like watching paint dry. That’s where we are at the moment. The positives – like improving sentiment in the stock market – are still positive; and the negatives – like interest rates and mortgage applications – are still negative. And the...

Interesting national reports as detailed in Letters from an American. At least, I find them interestingto be redundant. Multiple topics passing in review. June 22, 2023, Letters from an American, Prof. Heather Cox Richardson Something Amazing for Drivers “To rebuild I-95 on time, we need 12 hours of dry weather to complete the paving and striping process,” Pennsylvania’s Democratic governor Josh Shapiro tweeted. “With rain in the forecast,...

About the time I was talking to USC’s Associate Director and Alan Collinge at the Student Loan Justice Facebook site, Michael “The Guardian” reporter was talking to students there about payback issues. Everyone is concerned about the startup of loan paybacks. It is a serious issue for most. ‘There’s no way I can pay it’: Americans dread restart of student loan payments, US student debt | The Guardian, Michael Sainato Many Americans are dreading...

Back to the basics: how do initial claims, total hours worked, aggregate real payrolls, and job growth relate?  – by New Deal democrat One of the most important reasons why big Fed rate hikes and big downturns in things like housing starts and credit provision haven’t translated into a recession this year (so far!) is the big decline in gas prices in the second half of last year. This big decline has translated into income and spending gains...