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Tag Archives: New Deal Democrat

New jobless claims decline for a (recent) change

New jobless claims decline for a (recent) change For the last several months, there has has been nearly a relentless slow increase in new jobless claims. That trend broke, at least for this week.  Initial jobless claims declined by 2,000 to 250,000. More importantly, the 4 week average also declined by 2,750 to 246,750.  Continuing claims rose 7,000 to 1,437,000, the highest since April: Claims have been on track to turn higher YoY in...

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Coronavirus dashboard August 9: BA.5 dominant, slowly waning, a model for endemicity

Coronavirus dashboard for August 9: BA.5 dominant, with a slow waning; a model for endemicity  – by New Deal democrat  BIobot’s most recent update, through last week, shows a decline of 15% of COVID in wastewater, consistent with about 460,000 “real” new infections per day: All 4 Census regions (not shown) are participating in the decline. Confirmed cases (dotted line below) have declined by a roughly similar percent, to 105,500....

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July jobs report: in which an absolute positive blowout make me happily wrong

July jobs report: in which an absolute positive blowout make me happily wrong; all pandemic job losses now recovered  –  by New Deal democrat As I wrote earlier this week, the short leading indicators for both jobs (real retail sales) and the unemployment rate (initial jobless claims) have each signaled that we should expect weaker monthly employment reports, with both fewer new jobs and a higher unemployment rate. I have been noting this ever...

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July mfg. and June constr. spending: leading components of both are negative

Quick note; “ISM metric strongly suggests that it is likely that the economy will enter recession no later than Q1 of next year, and possibly much sooner (but probably not now). more detail below July manufacturing and June construction spending: leading components of both are negative  – by New Deal democrat As usual, the new month’s first data is for manufacturing and construction. Here’s a look at each. The ISM manufacturing index,...

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The Bonddad Blog: Weekly Indicators for July 25 – 29 at Seeking Alpha

Weekly Indicators for July 25 – 29 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. There have been some interesting counter-trend movements in the indicators. For example, interest rates on mortgages have declined by more than 1% since their peak one month ago. Gas prices have declined by about $0.80/gallon, or almost half of their increase that coincided with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine invasion...

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Real income continued to fall in June, while consumers dug deeper to spend

Real income continued to fall in June, while consumers dug deeper to spend  – by New Deal democrat In June personal income rose 0.6% nominally, and nominal spending rose 1.1%. The personal consumption deflator, i.e., the relevant measure of inflation, clocked in at 1.0%, meaning real income fell -0.4%, while real personal spending rose 0.1%. I have been comparing both real personal income and spending with that with their level after early...

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Long leading indicators embedded in Q2 GDP suggest a recession is near at hand

Long leading indicators embedded in Q2 GDP suggest a recession is near at hand  – by New Deal democrat Where does the economy go from here?  If it’s not in recession, it isn’t doing much better. There are two components of GDP which are helpful in finding out what lies ahead: real residential fixed investment (housing) and proprietors income (a proxy for business profits). Both of these have long and good track records as helping forecast the...

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Increasing trend in initial claims continues; on track to signal recession in November

Increasing trend in initial claims continues; on track to signal recession in November  – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims declined 5,000 to 256,000 last week. But hold your celebrations, because that was because last week’s 251,000 was revised 10,000 higher! The 4 week average rose another 6,250 to 249,250, a nearly 8 month high.  On the positive side, continuing claims declined 25,000 to 1,359,000: Typically, but not always,...

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First comments on Q2 GDP, no Recession Yet

First comments on Q2 GDP: no, we’re not in a recession (yet)  – by New Deal democrat When the negative print on Q1 GDP first came out three months ago, I wrote: “yes, it was a negative GDP print. No, it doesn’t necessarily mean recession…. But the big culprits were non-core items. Personal consumption expenditures, even adjusted for inflation, were positive. The three big negatives were a big decline in exports vs. imports, followed in about...

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New Home Sales Fall Sharply . . .

New home sales continue to fall sharply, while prices for both new and existing homes continues to increase sharply New home sales declined further in June to 590,000 annualized and May was revised sharply lower as well: This was the lowest number since the pandemic lockdown month of April 2020, and before that since December 2018. It is also over 40% lower than the peak reading of 1.036 sales annualized in August 2020. This is absolutely...

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