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Tag Archives: New Deal Democrat

A Comment on Housing, Inflation, and Fed Policy

A comment on housing, inflation, and Fed policy (and a side comment on spending) No big economic news today, and as usual little State reporting on COVID over the weekend, so let me make a couple of points. As an initial note, the big report I will be paying attention to this week is personal spending and income, which will be reported on Thursday. As I’ve noted several times recently, the goods-producing side of the economy has been fading...

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Existing home sales: the freight train of price appreciation rolls on

Existing home sales: the freight train of price appreciation rolls on Although existing home sales are less economically important than new home sales, what has been happening with their prices, given the experience of the housing bubble and bust 15 years ago, is of added importance. The simple summary is that sales have declined substantially, while price appreciation keeps rolling on. Sales of existing homes were down 3.4% for the...

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Coronavirus dashboard for June 19: documenting the transition from pandemic to endemic

Coronavirus dashboard for June 19: documenting the transition from pandemic to endemic ~~~~~~~ The COVID-19 pandemic is ever so gradually transforming into an endemic illness, the major risks of which still mainly fall on seniors. Here is the long-term view of cases (dotted line) and deaths (solid line) in the US: While cases are similar to the peaks of 2020, but far below those of 2021, deaths are lower than at any point except for June...

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Positive Production Points to Continued Economic Expansion in May

Positive production print points to continued economic expansion in May The usual suspects are out, claiming that a recession has either already started or is imminent. Well, the big reason I call industrial production the King of Coincident Indicators is because empirically is the one whose peaks and troughs coincide most definitively with NBER recession dates. And unless there is a significant downward revision, in May the King of Coincident...

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Downturn in housing permits and starts in May

An across the board downturn for housing permits and starts in May Housing permits and starts declined across the board in May. In the past year there has been a unique divergence between permits and starts due to construction supply shortages.  This has been reflected in the number of housing units authorized but not started increasing to a near-50 year records of 298.4 in March. In May that number increased from April by 1.5 million...

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Consumer prices rise 1% in May alone; owners’ equivalent rent at 30 year high

Consumer prices rise 1% in May alone; owners’ equivalent rent at 30 year high; expect the Fed to keep stomping on the brakes Today is a travel day for me, so I’ll keep this relatively brief. People who were hoping inflation would abate did not get the news they wanted from the May CPI. Consumer prices rose 1.0% in that month alone. Inflation less energy rose 0.7%, and “core” inflation less food and energy rose 0.6%. On a YoY basis, prices are...

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Weekly Indicators for May 16 – 20

– by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for May 16 – 20 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. The yield curve tightened some more this week (but did not invert). Meanwhile, I am seeing a fair amount of commentary suggesting that a recession is imminent. This is jumping the gun, and is mainly relying on the downturn in the stock market as well as the increase in gas prices. These are short leading indicators,...

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Weekly Indicators for May 9 – 13 at Seeking Alpha

Weekly Indicators for May 9 – 13 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. One measure of how the Russia-Ukraine war has been “normalized” globally, is that industrial commodity prices have declined sharply – on the order of 25% – in the past two weeks, taking back their entire sharp increase at the start of hostilities. Meanwhile, the Treasury yield curve has “normalized” somewhat more in...

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Omicron has Peaked, Now What?

Coronavirus dashboard: Omicron has peaked; now what?, New Deal Democrat  – by New Deal democratLet’s start out with the good, or at least less catastrophic news: it’s almost certain that the Omicron wave has peaked in the US. In fact, the only Census region it is still up week over week is in the Midwest: In almost all of the areas hit hard early – Puerto Rico, and the NYC and DC metro areas – cases are down sharply since peaking....

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Weekly Indicators for January 10 – 14 at Seeking Alpha

Weekly Indicators for January 10 – 14 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. In addition to Omicron, commodity prices and interest rates are having an impact across the board on the long and short term forecasts and the nowcast. (Just for spite, two weeks ago some RW nut jobs had a fit about my including a meteor as the image for the article, so this week I including an even more graphic...

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