Tag Archives: Uncategorized

While surveys remain Trumped up, at least so far when it comes to actual numbers the deceleration continues, and can’t reverse without a commensurate increase in deficit spending, public or private: Highlights ADP is pointing to a softer-than-expected employment report on Friday. ADP’s estimate for private payrolls is 153,000, a still respectable level of growth but noticeably below the Econoday consensus for 172,000. Private payroll growth in Friday’s December employment...

from Dean Baker Shortly after Donald Trump enters the White House, we should get an answer to a key question from his campaign: What does he actually intend to do about trade? Trade was one of his main issues when he campaigned in the key industrial states that he won in November. Trump argued that past presidents of both parties had failed the country’s workers by signing bad trade deals. He said that the negotiators were “stupid” and that he would instead appoint “smart” negotiators who...

Car sales better than expected, but the annual rate of growth has slowed and 2016 was up less than .5% vs 2015 year. So if vehicles added less than the year before, something else has to add more than it did the year before, or the annual GDP growth slowed: Sales for 2016 hit a new annual record. Sales in 2016 were at 17.465 million, up from the previous record of 17.396 million set last year.Read more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/#A7zlBSb83MtA17vJ.99 Manhattan’s...

from Peter Radford I am going to be writing an extensive review of Avner Offer and Gabriel Söderberg’s excellent book: “The Nobel Factor” in the near future. Meanwhile allow me to share a a couple of early comments because they bear heavily on how we all approach the Trump administration. Offer and Söderberg clarify the circumstances behind the shift in economics that occurred in the late 1970’s and came into full effect in the subsequent decades. Their  focus is heavily on how the Nobel...

Purchase apps now down year over year, and less than half of what they used to be pre crisis: Highlights Purchase applications for home mortgages fell 2.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in the December 30 week compared to the level 2 weeks earlier, which was the last prior reading due to the Christmas holiday. The refinance index was down a much sharper 22 percent compared to two weeks ago, as higher interest rates continue to deter refinancing by homeowners to a...

A bit of a bump up going into year end. Could be about expiring tax breaks as has happened in prior years: Highlights Construction had been lagging through most of 2016 but, like the factory sector, appears to have picked up steam going into year-end. Spending rose 0.9 percent in November which just tops Econoday’s high estimate and is the best reading since June. Residential spending rose 1.0 percent in the month on top of October’s 1.6 percent gain. The gain here is...

from David Ruccio The capitalist machine is broken—and no one seems to know how to fix it. The machine I’m referring to is the one whereby the “capitalist” (i.e., the boards of directors of large corporations) converts the “surplus” (i.e., corporate profits) into additional “capital” (i.e., nonresidential fixed investment)—thereby preserving the pact with the devil: the capitalists are the ones who get and decide on the distribution of the surplus, and then they’re supposed to use the...

from  Norbert Haering In early November, without warning, the Indian government declared the two largest denomination bills invalid, abolishing over 80 percent of circulating cash by value. Amidst all the commotion and outrage this caused, nobody seems to have taken note of the decisive role that Washington played in this. That is surprising, as Washington’s role has been disguised only very superficially. US-President Barack Obama has declared the strategic partnership with India a...

from Peter Radford I am not going to become involved in endless analysis of Trump’s presidency. I think we ought let it speak for itself. Nor am I going to waste space critiquing the huge contribution that academic economics has made to Trump’s rise to power. I think the anti-democratic nature of mainstream economics is both palpable and speaks for itself too. Economics is largely a libertarian discipline and sneers at anything remotely involving “we the people” unless it can re-package...

from Dean Baker Breaking the taxi industry cartel’s and promoting Uber has been somewhat of a cause celebre among economists in recent years. Any card carrying economist can give you the two minute tirade on the evils of the taxi cartel and the benefits of Uber. (I can too, but the argument should be for modernized regulation, not Uber gets to do whatever it wants because it’s Uber, see pieces here, here, and here.) What is striking is that the enthusiasm for the virtues of competition...