Tag Archives: Uncategorized

from David Ruccio The problem of the growing gap between the small group of haves and all other Americans is (as I noted a week ago) so bad even the International Monetary Fund is sounding the alarm.  Despite the ongoing expansion, the U.S. faces a confluence of forces that will weigh on the prospects for continued gains in economic well being. A rising share of the U.S. labor force is shifting into retirement, basic infrastructure is crumbling, productivity gains are scanty, and labor...

Up a bit, but still weak and in a downtrend, and employment declining: HighlightsThe small business optimism index rose 0.7 points in June to 94.5, the third monthly increase since falling to a 2-year low in March. The improvement in small business optimism slightly exceeded expectations, though the index remains in the downtrend in place since the 100.4 recovery peak set in December 2013 and below the 42-year average of 98. Four of the 10 components of the index posted...

Not good: Not a good sign when tax revenue growth decelerates like this:

from Asad Zaman This post was meant to provide a framework for further elaboration of the idea of ET1% — the Economic Theory of the top 1% — as one ingredient of a Meta-Theory of Economics. However, covering necessary preliminary background already took up more than a thousand words, so this project has been deferred for a later post. The goal of this post is to explain why we need to focus on Meta-Theoretical aspects of social science, rather than whether or not economic theories are...

Does, contrary to the assumptions of many economic models, ‘involuntary unemployment’ exist? Of course. We measure it (for the definition see below). And in the USA it is going down. About two months ago I posted this graph, which showed that what I call involuntary unemployment in the USA tended upwards. Two months of additional data show that this was, fortunately, just a hiccup – though the decline is not as fast as it used to be. Some musings about models and measurement, starting...

Still decelerating on a year over year basis: United States Consumer Credit ChangeConsumer credit in the United States increased by $18.56 billion in May 2016 following a downwardly revised $13.4 billion rise in April and above market expectations of a $16 billion gain. This was decelerating and below stall speed when the boom in oil capex reversed that trend early in 2014. Then in late 2014 oil capex collapsed and bank lending growth reversed and resumed its deceleration:...

Nice rebound as Verizon workers return to work, but the year over year deceleration continues and, of course, this number will be revised next month. And the lower average hourly earnings gains could put off fears of the US turning into Zimbabwe and Weimar for several hours: The payroll gain in June is what is striking in this report. Yet smoothing the big ups and downs, second-quarter payroll growth averaged a monthly 147,300 vs a more substantial 195,700 in the first...

Record lows, particularly population adjusted, for record periods of time, and no one even suggests it might be because they’ve become that much harder to get? Meanwhile, the consequence is less govt. spending than otherwise potentially making this recession that much worse: Note the peak was just after oil capital expenditures collapsed: The Italian bank crisis isn’t going away. There is no way under current policy to recapitalize. The EU considers any funds from the...

More weakness: HighlightsThere is some weakness in the May trade report as the nation’s trade deficit widened sharply to $41.1 billion from April’s $37.4 billion. The net deficit for goods widened to $62.2 billion from April’s $58.6 billion while the net surplus for services narrowed slightly to $21.1 billion. In a negative indication on global demand, exports of both goods and services fell slightly in the month. But in a positive indication on domestic demand, imports rose...

Worse than expected as another April gain reverts in May: US Factory Orders Fall More Than Expected New orders for manufactured goods shrank 1% mom in May, compared to a downwardly revised 1.8% gain in April. Figures came slightly worse than market expectations of a 0.9% drop. Meanwhile, orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft fell 0.4%, lower than a 0.7% drop in April and excluding transportation, factory orders edged up 0.1%.HighlightsMay was a weak month...