Back in 2011, I wrote a post arguing that self-defense (including collective self-defense) is justified only to the extent of restoring the status quo ante bellum. That is, having defeated an aggressor, a country is not justified in seizing territory, unilaterally exacting reparations or imposing a new government on its opponent. Conversely, and regardless of the alleged starting point, countries not directly involved should never recognise a forcibly imposed transfer of territory...
Read More »US manufacturing, bank loans
Stabilizing at modest expansion levels, helped by exports due to relatively low cost US energy: No sign yet the Fed rate hikes have worked to slow lending and demand as presumed they would:
Read More »Exports, multi-family housing starts, unemployment claims
US exports continue to grow rapidly as the US has the least expensive energy costs.It’s an indirect way to export energy and it works to keep the $US relatively strong: New highs and growing rapidly: No sign of stress here:
Read More »Existing home sales, architecture billing index, Biden response
Sales had leveled off pre-Covid, then took a Covid dip followed by a recovery bounce,and now seem to be maybe a touch below the pre-Covid range: Moderate growth in this leading indicator: I have no idea what this response means as we gravitate towards nuclear war:
Read More »Housing starts, consumer sentiment
Housing may be bouncing back as the fear of rate hikes is overtaken by the increase in incomes: Nice move up away from recession, though too soon to say things have reversed:
Read More »Open thread Sept. 20, 2022
Open thread Sept. 16, 2022
China is the world’s largest economy: Get over it
from Dean Baker It is common for politicians and pundit types to speculate on when or whether China’s economy will pass the US economy as the world’s largest. The latest episode to cross my path was a column by David Wallace in the New York Times. There is little reason for this sort of speculation. China is already the world’s largest economy, its economy is more than 20 percent larger than the US economy, according to the IMF. Furthermore, it is growing considerably more rapidly...
Read More »What I’ve been doing and saying
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Read More »Industrial production, retail sales, unemployment claims, comments
This index is settling in to about a 3.5% annual rate of growth.No recession indication here: No recession here either: No sign of recession here: Markets are being driven by the understanding that the Fed will continue to raise rates until there is a recession, not realizing that rate increases, with debt/GDP as high as it is,result in a sufficiently large increase in government deficit spending on those interest payments to support both the growth of private sector total...
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