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So far so good for Q3 that ended Sep 30- about in line with pre-Covid growth rates: Much like the US, much of the rest of the world is hiking rates with high debt/GDP and supporting their economies that had slowed from fiscal contraction with massive government interest payments- universal basic income for those who already have money: Looks like the pro forecasters see accelerating earrings ahead- yet more evidence the rate hikes aren’t working in the intended...

So far so good for Q3 that ended Sep 30- about in line with pre-Covid growth rates: Much like the US, much of the rest of the world is hiking rates with high debt/GDP and supporting their economies that had slowed from fiscal contraction with massive government interest payments- universal basic income for those who already have money: Looks like the pro forecasters see accelerating earrings ahead- yet more evidence the rate hikes aren’t working in the intended...

Lots of commodities to or near pre-Covid levels: Still looking lower but still positive and not yet indicating recession:

I’ve long held that one of the greatest blows to American democracy was the disappearance of the Soviet Union. With the advent of the Cold War, as the USSR went from ally to adversary, the US was shamed into embrace civil rights and to improve public education. I personally benefitted from the updated public school STEM curricula driven by the space race. With the fall of the Soviet Union, the US has been in retreat in these areas and increasing...

Imagine Moscow was nuked yesterday, and this morning The New York Times ran a frontpage headline “Moscow nuked: Russia proves its hostility to Europe again”. Sounds pretty crazy? Yet, in a manner of speaking, that is what happened last week. On Tuesday September 27th three major leaks caused by undersea explosions were discovered in the […]

The Dutch September HICP inflation rate was 17,1%. One year ago it was 3,0%. Below, I will argue that this is a sign of kind of war economy, not of a cyclically overheated economy. Ways to mitigate inflation were pioneered by the English economist John Maynard Keynes in his ‘How to pay for the war‘. it’s useful to go back to his ideas. The first version was published in three parts in The Times of november 1939. It was partly based on his experiences in World War I and partly on the...

Modest growth continues.The data keeps telling me the rate hikes are helping the economy rather than hurting it: This is nominal, not adjusted for inflation, and there is no evidence of rate hikes slowing anything down: Same here for inflation-adjusted consumption: Too soon to say it is turned up, but better than expected and not indicating a recession: “The University of Michigan consumer sentiment for the US was revised lower to 58.6 in September of 2022 from a...

I wrote a piece for the Guardian, urging the Queensland government to hold the line on its plan to close a tax loophole for wealthy investors, in the face of a ferocious Murdoch media campaign, and sabotage from the Perrottet government in NSW. Sadly, just as I submitted it, the government caved in. But the critique of the Courier-Mail might get a run on Media Watch. Anyway, here it is The Queensland government’s announcement that it is closing a loophole in the land tax system,...

I wrote a piece for the Guardian, urging the Queensland government to hold the line on its plan to close a tax loophole for wealthy investors, in the face of a ferocious Murdoch media campaign, and sabotage from the Perrottet government in NSW. Sadly, just as I submitted it, the government caved in. But the critique of the Courier-Mail might get a run on Media Watch. Anyway, here it is The Queensland government’s announcement that it is closing a loophole in the land tax system,...