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This is my second post on the recent troubles with Sterling. In the first, I discussed vibes, mood, and animal spirits. I do think that is the best way to think about what’s going on, but I promised to write as an economist typically do (not as we all our in this case). The basic facts are that Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng announced a mini-budget revision including elimination of the 45% income tax bracket. Oddly many financiers who would directly...

from Lars Syll It may be argued … that the betting quotient and credibility are substitutable in the same sense in which two commodities are: less bread but more meat may leave the consumer as well off as before. If this were, then clearly expectation could be reduced to a unidimensional concept … However, the substitutability of consumers’ goods rests upon the tacit assumption that all commodities contain something — called utility — in a greater or less degree; substitutability is...

No recession here: Permits for new home construction are down from the post-Covid bounce but remain above pre-Covid levels: New home sales recovering from rate hike fears and returning to pre-Covid highs, as in fact rate hikes increase gov deficit spending on interest expense paid to the economy, adding to incomes and spending:

Back in 2011, I wrote a post arguing that self-defense (including collective self-defense) is justified only to the extent of restoring the status quo ante bellum. That is, having defeated an aggressor, a country is not justified in seizing territory, unilaterally exacting reparations or imposing a new government on its opponent. Conversely, and regardless of the alleged starting point, countries not directly involved should never recognise a forcibly imposed transfer of territory...

Back in 2011, I wrote a post arguing that self-defense (including collective self-defense) is justified only to the extent of restoring the status quo ante bellum. That is, having defeated an aggressor, a country is not justified in seizing territory, unilaterally exacting reparations or imposing a new government on its opponent. Conversely, and regardless of the alleged starting point, countries not directly involved should never recognise a forcibly imposed transfer of territory...

Stabilizing at modest expansion levels, helped by exports due to relatively low cost US energy: No sign yet the Fed rate hikes have worked to slow lending and demand as presumed they would:

US exports continue to grow rapidly as the US has the least expensive energy costs.It’s an indirect way to export energy and it works to keep the $US relatively strong: New highs and growing rapidly: No sign of stress here:

Sales had leveled off pre-Covid, then took a Covid dip followed by a recovery bounce,and now seem to be maybe a touch below the pre-Covid range: Moderate growth in this leading indicator: I have no idea what this response means as we gravitate towards nuclear war:

Housing may be bouncing back as the fear of rate hikes is overtaken by the increase in incomes: Nice move up away from recession, though too soon to say things have reversed: