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from Dean Baker It is common for politicians and pundit types to speculate on when or whether China’s economy will pass the US economy as the world’s largest. The latest episode to cross my path was a column by David Wallace in the New York Times. There is little reason for this sort of speculation. China is already the world’s largest economy, its economy is more than 20 percent larger than the US economy, according to the IMF. Furthermore, it is growing considerably more rapidly...

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This index is settling in to about a 3.5% annual rate of growth.No recession indication here: No recession here either: No sign of recession here: Markets are being driven by the understanding that the Fed will continue to raise rates until there is a recession, not realizing that rate increases, with debt/GDP as high as it is,result in a sufficiently large increase in government deficit spending on those interest payments to support both the growth of private sector total...

Gone flat since oil prices broke, and means that the strong nominal personal income growth becomes strong real income growth: Still negative but making a comeback even with the rate hikes:

from Lars Syll It is well known that even experienced scientists routinely misinterpret p-values in all sorts of ways, including confusion of statistical and practical significance, treating non-rejection as acceptance of the null hypothesis, and interpreting the p-value as some sort of replication probability or as the posterior probability that the null hypothesis is true … It is shocking that these errors seem so hard-wired into statisticians’ thinking, and this suggests that our...

With the death of Queen Elizabeth, the issue of an Australian republic has naturally arisen. The immediately following question is whether we should support a ‘minimal’ republic, as similar as possible to our current system, or replace the Governor-General with an elected President. The starting point for both monarchists and supporters of a minimal republic. is the claim that ‘the existing system has worked well’. This is incorrect in two crucial respects First, the current...

 by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for September 5 – 9 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. While interest rates continue to rise, gas prices have continued to fall, giving consumers a second wind. As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you up to the virtual moment, and reward me a little bit for my efforts. Tags:...