Tag Archives: US EConomics

Resurrecting the metric: initial claims lead the unemployment rate; no recession signal so far  Initial jobless claims declined -2,000 to 229,000 last week, vs. the 50+ year low of 166,000 set in March. The 4 week average rose from 4,500 to 223,500, compared with the all-time low of 170,500 eleven weeks ago.  Continuing claims rose 5,000 to 1,315,000, which is 9,000 above their 50 year low of 3 weeks ago: Initial claims have been in an uptrend...

RJS, MarketWatch 666 ~~~~~~~ Summary: Producer Prices Rose 0.8% in May; Record Annual Increase of 16.6% for Final Demand Goods The seasonally adjusted Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand rose 0.8% in May, as average prices for finished wholesale goods rose by 1.4% while final demand for services was 0.4% higher. The increase followed a revised 0.4% increase in April, when average prices for finished wholesale goods rose by 1.3% while...

Housing unaffordability closes in on bubble peaks; expect substantial price declines and increased foreclosures in the likely oncoming recession – by New Deal democrat I last looked at the issue of housing affordability at the beginning of April. As we all know, mortgage rates have continued to skyrocket in the past several months. At present they are just under 6.10%: This has changed the calculus on housing affordability considerably. So...

RJS, MarketWatch 666 ~~~~~~~ Summary: Retail Sales Fell 0.3% in May After March and April Sales Were Revised Lower Seasonally adjusted retail sales fell 0.3% in May after retail sales for April were revised 0.4% lower. The  Advance Retail Sales Report for May (pdf) from the Census Bureau estimated our seasonally adjusted retail and food services sales totaled $672.9 billion for the month, which was a decrease of 0.3 percent (±0.5%)...

Existing home sales: the freight train of price appreciation rolls on Although existing home sales are less economically important than new home sales, what has been happening with their prices, given the experience of the housing bubble and bust 15 years ago, is of added importance. The simple summary is that sales have declined substantially, while price appreciation keeps rolling on. Sales of existing homes were down 3.4% for the...

Jean-Paul loved Simone as he could never love anyone else; gave her his heart and, with some great effort, won hers. Simone, she wasn’t one to be particular. Both he and she were Existentialists. Albert, an Absurdist, and Jean-Paul were friends. Simone fell for Albert on first sight. Absurd or not; big minds attract. Absurd or not; he demurred. Unrequited or not; seems Simone’s hots for Albert ruined one of philosophy’s great friendships. Lo, the...

Tariffs and Inflation Kevin Quinn, Econospeak  Jason Furman and Janet Yellen have both suggested that cutting Trump’s tariffs would be anti-inflationary. But most economists agree that the incidence of the tariffs is for the most part on US consumers, not foreign suppliers (pace the treasonous and ignorant former president, who crowed about all the revenues we were raising from China). So how is a tax cut anti-inflationary?  There is a supply-side...

Weekly Indicators for June 13 – 17 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. My paradigm is: first the long leading indicators turn. Then the short leading indicators turn. Then the coincident indicators turn. Finally the lagging indicators turn. For months I have been documenting the downturn among the long leading indicators. In the past few weeks, that deterioration has been gradually...

Positive production print points to continued economic expansion in May The usual suspects are out, claiming that a recession has either already started or is imminent. Well, the big reason I call industrial production the King of Coincident Indicators is because empirically is the one whose peaks and troughs coincide most definitively with NBER recession dates. And unless there is a significant downward revision, in May the King of Coincident...

An across the board downturn for housing permits and starts in May Housing permits and starts declined across the board in May. In the past year there has been a unique divergence between permits and starts due to construction supply shortages.  This has been reflected in the number of housing units authorized but not started increasing to a near-50 year records of 298.4 in March. In May that number increased from April by 1.5 million...