Tag Archives: US EConomics

The “gold standard” of jobs data shows a strong rebound in Q3 2022  – by New Deal democrat The preliminary estimate for the Q3 2022 QCEW was released yesterday. Although the monthly nonfarm payrolls report gets all the glory, it is only a survey. The QCEW is an actual census of the roughly 95% of all businesses paying unemployment insurance. It is reported with about a 6 month delay, and is not seasonally adjusted. The bottom line is while...

Initial claims continue recent excellent streak  – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims continued their recent excellent reports, as there were only 192,000 new claims, down -3,000 from the week before, and close to their 50+ year lows of last March and April. The 4 week average increased 1,500 to 191,250, still an excellent number. Continuing claims, with a one week delay, declined -37,000 to 1,654,000, still in their slightly elevated...

There are two good articles to be read here. Most is drawn from The Atlantic article and the other from The Detroit News. Some of the information is pulled from other articles to which the links are in the article. EVs may be the wave of the future. I think we will need better technology to power the electric vehicles and also lessen the energy pollution needed to make them. “Electric Vehicles Are a Status Symbol Now,” The Atlantic, Andrew...

Consumption leads jobs: a comprehensive update  – by New Deal democrat Yesterday I encountered a post on Seeking Alpha from the chief economist for a major trading platform, who probably makes in a week the amount I pocket in an entire year from my writing, who wrote: “if one loses one’s job, one likely spends less. If one witnesses colleagues lose their jobs, one may cut back on spending. If extended family members lose their jobs,...

The long leading forecast through year end 2023 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat Normally in late January I update my top-line long leading forecast for the entire year. A little late this year, it is now up at Seeking Alpha. If you follow my updates on the leading indicators, the result isn’t very surprising. The twist is that recessions are almost always much shorter than expansions, so the long leading indicators turn up on a...

Existing home sales and prices decline further, BUT . . .  – by New Deal democrat Even though existing home sales make up about 90% of the total market, they have much less economic impact than new home construction. They are best used to confirm trends. In January they continued to confirm that sales have continued to decline, and prices, which follow sales with a lag, have joined in. January sales declined another -0.7% to 4.2 million...

Weekly Indicators for February 13 – 17 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. There are two trends percolating under the surface. One trend is the continued slow decaying of growth in the coincident indicators. The other is the slow move towards turning neutral or positive among some of the long and even short leading indicators. No forecast at this point, but I am beginning to suspect...

Calculated Risk: MBA: “Mortgage Delinquencies Increase in the Fourth Quarter of 2022” calculatedriskblog.com, Bill McBride by Calculated Risk on 2/16/2023 01:42:00 PM From the MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increase in the Fourth Quarter of 2022 The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties increased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.96 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the fourth quarter of...

This is a long one and a C&P. Other than putting it up at Angry Bear, I can not take credit for this one. What I can say is . . . they are not the first ones to accuse Supply Chain for much of the inflationary issues we have had as a nation. In 2008, automotive cut production and did not maintain orders with the supply base. When it started back up, we were chasing semiconductors, etc. Lead-times doubled. We have just gone through similar....

Real average wages and real aggregate payrolls for nonsupervisory workers through January  – by New Deal democrat With no new data today, to close out the week let’s update real average wages and aggregate payrolls for nonsupervisory workers. This is the best way, based on monthly data, to see how average Americans are doing financially. While average nonsupervisory wages increased 0.2% in January, consumer inflation increased more, at 0.5%,...