Tag Archives: US EConomics

The Biden administration and congressional Democrats have so far refused to negotiate with House Republicans over spending cuts to resolve the looming debt ceiling crisis.  This tactic has successfully pressured Republicans into passing a bill with unpopular spending cuts that Democrats will quite rightly use to their advantage in the upcoming election.  But now that the House Republicans have put a plan on the table it will be difficult for...

The un(der)employment rate leads wage growth: 2023 update  – by New Deal democrat I had already planned on taking an updated look at wage growth today, but there was a little flutter on twitter about job openings and last week’s Q1 wage and benefits data, so that sealed the deal. To wit: as I used to write many times during the last expansion, wage growth is a long lagging indicator. It tends to increase only after unemployment (or even...

14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution: Civil Rights (1868) | National Archives, Section 4. “The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, including debts incurred for payment of pensions and bounties for services in suppressing insurrection or rebellion, shall not be questioned. But neither the United States nor any State shall assume or pay any debt or obligation incurred in aid of insurrection or rebellion against...

March JOLTS report shows labor market about halfway to pre-pandemic normalization  – by New Deal democrat The title of this piece is an important to clue the relative nature of this morning’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover report for March. For the last several years, the jobs market has been a game of “reverse musical chairs,” where there are always more chairs than participants. Those employers whose chairs weren’t filled had to increase...

Another collection of articles on various topics from my In-Box. Puling quite a bit from Healthcare. Some interesting articles in this batch. I hope you take a few moments and read some of them. Most are not terribly long winded. I wander in the comments section to see what is being said on various topics. I am not impressed with many of the responses. The ones on carrying bullet-spewing-weapons are just plain ignorant. Healthcare Doctor on...

Manufacturing and construction start out the month’s data to the negative side  – by New Deal democrat As usual, we start the month with reports on last month’s manufacturing, and construction from two months ago. The ISM manufacturing index has a 75 year record of being a very reliable leading indicator. According to the ISM, readings below 48 are consistent with an oncoming recession. And there, the news is not good. Not only has the index...

Commenter Fred Dobbs reports (NYT) on the seizure of First Republic Bank by banking regulators in the comments section of Angry Bear. I am beginning to wonder how many more seizures will occur. How many failures are resulting from the loosening of Dodd-Frank? It appears the Fed has a greater impact on banks than Labor. JP Morgan Chase to the rescue . . . Earlier Angry Bear commentary on Dodd – Frank here and here. Fred Dobbs comment; First...

I got to this article about the Home Value Index Report after reading an Insider’s “The Fight Over Airbnbs Is Now Descending on Small American Cities,” businessinsider.com, Dan Latu. The article is about Airbnb rentals in Bozeman, Montana. Bozeman residents are trying to figure out what to do as it is driving up the prices of homes and the resulting taxes. It all started with the pandemic and people escaping the more populated areas to Bozeman a...

 Weekly Indicators for April 24 – 28 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Several important short leading indicators rallied this week. In particular, the stock market seems to think the worst is over (for the moment!). At the same time, several important coincident indicators of taxation and employment are on the cusp of rolling over again. As usual, clicking over and reading will...

A mixed picture on real personal income, savings, and spending in March, and real total sales in February  – by New Deal democrat As I’ve indicated a number of times recently, right now I consider the report on personal income and spending co-equal to the employment report as the most important monthly data. For March, it was a mixed bag. Nominally, personal income rose 0.3%, and personal spending was unchanged. Because the applicable...