Tag Archives: US EConomics

May jobs report: Like the past few months, I was most interested in three main issues: 1. Is the pace of job growth decelerating?  (Yes, but it is still very strong by historical standards) 2. Is wage growth holding up? Is it accelerating? (It is still strong, but decelerated again slightly) 3. Are the leading indicators in the report beginning to flag? (Not yet) We still have 822,000 jobs, or 0.5% of the total to go to equal the...

After all this time, and even with the benefit of history, the causes of World War One (WWI) are still a matter of discussion amongst scholars. For scholars living then to have understood what the causes were, they would have needed to have known an awful lot about all that was going on at the time; which would have been difficult. They would also have needed to cross the philosophical Rubicon and not have allowed long-held beliefs and norms to...

I have worked with Alan Collinge and Student Loan Justice Org. for at least a decade on student loan bankruptcy. This article was taken from the Tallahassee Democrat. This article has some numbers on who is impacted, which has been presented, and largely ignored here and other places. United States Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), and Congresswoman Ayanna Pressley (D-Mass.) led their colleagues...

April JOLTS report: record low layoffs, still near record high quits and job openings Late last year, I introduced the idea that the jobs market was similar to a game of musical chairs. Employers added or took away chairs, and employees tried to best allocate themselves among the chairs. Because of the pandemic, there have been several million fewer players trying to sit in those chairs, leaving many empty. Additionally, there is 10% greater...

Let’s take a look at the new month’s first data, on manufacturing and construction. The ISM manufacturing index, and especially its new orders subindex, is an important short leading indicator for the production sector. In May both increased, by 0.7 to 56.1, and by 1.6 to 55.1, respectively. The breakeven point between expansion and contraction is 50, so these both remain solidly positive, if not white hot like they were during last year’s...

Student Loan Debt Forgiveness for half a million students from Corinthian Colleges (cnbc.com) An approximate 560,000 Corinthian College Inc. former students will have their loan balances forgiven as announced by U.S. Secretary of Education Miguel Cardona. “As of today, every student deceived, defrauded, and driven into debt by Corinthian Colleges can rest assured that the Biden-Harris administration has their back and will discharge their...

House prices: signs and portents of an approaching peak? House price increases were still going strong through March, as reported this morning in both the Case Shiller and FHFA house price indexes. The Case Shiller national index rose 2.1% for the month and 20.5% YoY, the biggest YoY% gain ever, while the FHFA purchase-only index rose 1.5% for the month, and 19.0% YoY. In the first graph below I also include the quarterly YoY% gain in the...

RJS: MarketWatch 666 Summary: 1st quarter GDP revision; April’s personal income and outlays, durable goods, and new home sales 1st Quarter GDP Revised to Show Our Economy Shrunk at a 1.5% Rate The Second Estimate of our 1st Quarter GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis indicated that our real output of goods and services shrunk at a 1.5% annual rate in the 1st quarter, revised from the 1.4% contraction rate reported in the advance...

RJS: Focus on Fracking Summary: natural gas prices hit 13½ year high after a six-fold increase in less than 2 years; US oil exports at a 26 month high even with SPR at a 34½ year low & US oil supplies at a 17 year low; total oil + products inventories at a new 13½ year low even with highest refinery utilization rate since 2019 & greatest refinery throughput in 11 months; rigs down first time in 31 weeks Natural gas prices hit 13½ year...

 by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for May 23 – 27 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Few changes to the headlines, but lots of churning underneath. People seem to have jumped the gun on recession, thinking one is either here or imminent. It’s not here, and it isn’t imminent. I wonder if people will get complacent later in the year, thinking we have dodged a bullet. That probably won’t be true either....