Tag Archives: US EConomics

 by New Deal democrat My long leading forecast through the end of 2022 My long leading forecast that goes 12 months out is now up at Seeking Alpha. I am as nerdy as can be, and follow the same indicators over and over, no matter what their message. And their message has been changing over the past 6 months. To find out what that means for the latter half of this year, click on over and read the article. As usual, this will equip you...

Oil prices hit 7 year high, natural gas hits 14 year high on largest one day price jump on record; natural gas supplies see largest draw this winter, Focus on Fracking, RJS Oil prices rose for a sixth straight week and eclipsed the 7 year high hit last week on heightened tension over Ukraine, tight supplies, and perceptions of rising demand…after rising 2.2% to $85.14 a barrel last week on supply disruptions in the Middle East and on rising...

WSJ reports Stocks rose broadly Thursday morning after the GDP report, but they retreated later in the day, with the Nasdaq falling 1.4%, the S&P 500 dropping 0.54%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average off 0.02%.Thursday’s report contained warning signs. Most of the growth owed to companies’ restocking rather than people and firms buying stuff. In part, the rise in inventory investment reflected a rebound from super-low inventory levels in...

Real personal income and spending both decline in December; no imminent worry but evidence of softening Nominal personal income rose 0.3% in December, while spending declined -0.6%. In real terms after inflation, personal income declined -0.1%, and personal consumption expenditures declined -1.0%. Nevertheless, both remain well above their pre-pandemic levels:  Here is what the same information looks like using May 2021 as a baseline, after...

by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for January 24 – 28 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. While most of the chatter this past week was about inflation and the Fed raising interest rates, commodities got hot again, with oil making another 7 year high. This is both good and bad. It’s good because it shows that the global economy is really running hot. And it’s bad because, well, the global economy is...

Real Q4 GDP completes the Boom of 2021, while long leading components warn of weaker 2022 to come Nominal GDP increased 6.9% in the 4th Quarter of 2021. After taking into account inflation, it increased 1.7% The last six economic quarters together have been the biggest economic Boom since 1983-84, as shown in the below graph showing YoY real GDP growth, minus the 5.5% of 2021, going all the way back to 1948: That’s pretty impressive....

With seasonality over, it is clear that Omicron is responsible for increased layoffs With seasonality behind us, it is apparent that Omicron has resulted in increased layoffs. New claims declined 30,000 last week to 260,000 – still well above its pandemic low of 188,000 set early in December. The 4 week average of new claims increased 15,000 to 247,000: Continuing claims for jobless benefits rose for the second week in a row, by...

New home sales surge, while house price measures decelerate; expect deceleration or even downturns in each Since I didn’t post yesterday, let me catch up today with a note on both new home sales and prices.New home sales (blue in the graph below) for December rose sharply to 811,000 on an annualized basis. This is the higher monthly number since March, and while it is well above the trend since the Great Recession, it is still well below its...

RJS, Focus on Fracking Oil prices rose for a fifth consecutive week and hit a 7 year high in the process, on supply disruptions in the Middle East and on rising tensions between NATO and Russia…after rising 6.3% to $83.82 per barrel last week on a softening of Fed rhetoric and on a production shortfall by OPEC+, the contract price for US light sweet crude for February delivery opened 50 cents higher on Tuesday after the MLK holiday as rising...

All throughout the Midwest, Plains, pretty much anywhere that doesn’t get adequate rain you can look on Google maps and see square fields with bright green circles in the middle. These are pivot fields that are irrigated from aquifers below. The corners of those fields are usually left barren. No, these are not the corners I am referring to. The square fields of corners I am referring to go back to biblical days. Some years back I was having...