Weekly Indicators for November 27 – December 1 at Seeking Alpha; plus a comment on the ISM manufacturing report – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. The coincident data continues quite strong, and the long leading indicators are increasingly “less bad,” which is something that happens when recessions are beginning to ebb. As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you up to the virtual moment as to...
Read More »Ex-housing, PCE inflation, like CPI inflation, is under the Fed’s 2% target
This was posted at 8:03 AM at the Bonddad Blog Thursday. I see other venues having similar reports up also. I am sometimes late in posting NDd’s economic commentaries. Ex-housing, PCE inflation, like CPI inflation, is under the Fed’s 2% target – by New Deal democrat Note: I may not be around for the ISM manufacturing or construction spending reports this morning. If so, I’ll comment later (maybe over the weekend) about them. What I’ll be...
Read More »Consumer income and spending continued to power ahead in October
Despite a few soft spots, consumer income and spending continued to power ahead in October – by New Deal democrat The monthly personal income and spending report is along with the jobs report, one of the two most important coincident metrics for the entire economy, because it is a fairly comprehensive look at the consumer sector. In October both nominal and real personal income and spending increased 0.2%. Since the beginning of the...
Read More »A new rule that would grant exemptions on swap trades
Here we are agin, trying to make it easier to trade derivatives. Never mind the lessons we thought we learned when Goldman Sachs called on AIG to ante up. There were little in reserve for the swaps and AIG was ready to collapse. Congress and the Fed (or reverse) saved them and the economy. The issue was Wall Street and Greenspan did not take swaps/derivatives seriously even after the Bankers Trust and Long-Term Capital Management. LTCM crisis –...
Read More »Despite the continuing elevation of continued claims, initial claims signal continued expansion
Despite the continued elevation of continued claims, initial claims signal continued expansion – by New Deal democrat I’ll comment on personal income and spending later this morning, but let’s start out with our weekly update on jobless claims. Initial claims rose 7,000 to 218,000, while the 4 week average declined -500 to 220,000. With a one week delay, continuing claims rose 86,000 to 1.927 million, a nearly 2 year high: On the more...
Read More »Forecasting a further upturn in the unemployment rate: what works?
Forecasting a further upturn in the unemployment rate: what works? – by New Deal democrat Yesterday I read a post over at Seeking Alpha in which the author confidently predicted a recession in Q1 next year, based exclusively on the NAHB builder sentiment index. Here’s his accompanying graph, comparing builder sentiment with the unemployment rate 17 months later: In case you didn’t already figure it out, the graph forecasts a 7%...
Read More »Electricity Statistics by Month and Overall – United States
AB: IEA will not allow me to change any wording. Anything in italics or leads with an AB in front is my wording. I believe the following (charts and brief summation) to be a good explanation of where the US stands at far as changes in energy and usage. A little background concerning our home. We live in a mostly electricity using house in terms of energy usage. Our fans are driven by DC (inverters) electricity. We have a heat pump to supply heat...
Read More »Driven by frozen inventory, repeat home prices continue to increase, but downward pressure on shelter inflation remains
Driven by frozen inventory, repeat home prices continue to increase, but downward pressure on shelter inflation remains – by New Deal democrat Our last piece of important housing information for the month was released this morning; namely repeat home sale prices as measured by the FHFA and Case Shiller. The former increased by 0.6%, and the latter by 0.3%, continuing their increases since the beginning of this year: On a YoY basis, the...
Read More »Open Thread November 28 2023 Housing Buy or Rent?
Buy or rent Housing in 2023? Cost of buying has surpassed the cost of renting in 2023. Blame high house prices and soaring mortgage rates. Since 2020 nominal house prices have climbed by roughly 40%. In the same period the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose from 3.1% to 7.3%, lifting the mortgage repayments on a typical house by more than 50%. Is it cheaper to rent or buy property? economist,...
Read More »USPS implementation of the Delivering for America plan Status
I have followed Steve Hutkins and retired Postmaster Mark Jamison for years now. Both Mark and I have had conversations both on and off Angry Bear. It appears we are nearing the end of the reconstruct of the USPS. Whether it works as well shy 50,000 employees with the expectation civilians on their own can manage without the experience of their help, service, and delivery remains to be seen. Long read and a worthy read with links! Delivering for...
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