Tag Archives: US/Global Economics

Dale Coberly found this excellent analysis on economic happenings by Yanis Varoufakis. How did all of this Inflation come about? Certainly, wages have not been outstripping everything else. Labor is going to take a hit eventually. We do have supply chain issues. Much caused by countries shutting down. Companies not maintaining orders to the manufacturers is also a part. Automotive again shoots itself in this manner and blames everything else....

How Changes In Changes In Inventories Have Brought US The “Recession” That Is Probably Not A Recession by Barkley Rosser, Econospeak  Based on just announced preliminary results, it looks like the US will have experiences negative GDP growth for the first two quarters of 2022. Based on a “rule of thumb” introduced in a New York Times column in 1974 by then BLS Commissioner, Julius Shishkin, this could be an indicator of a recession happening....

Growing up in Oak Ridge TN in the ‘60s, terms like “homogeneous reactor,” “molten salt reactor” and “breeder reactor” were frequently used, although I couldn’t have explained them at the time. Research into nuclear power became the mission of Oak Ridge National Labs after the war under the direction of Alvin Weinberg. A few years ago, I came across a guy on FB named Charles Barton Jr, an addiction counselor by training and a stalwart advocate for...

Long leading indicators embedded in Q2 GDP suggest a recession is near at hand  – by New Deal democrat Where does the economy go from here?  If it’s not in recession, it isn’t doing much better. There are two components of GDP which are helpful in finding out what lies ahead: real residential fixed investment (housing) and proprietors income (a proxy for business profits). Both of these have long and good track records as helping forecast the...

Increasing trend in initial claims continues; on track to signal recession in November  – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims declined 5,000 to 256,000 last week. But hold your celebrations, because that was because last week’s 251,000 was revised 10,000 higher! The 4 week average rose another 6,250 to 249,250, a nearly 8 month high.  On the positive side, continuing claims declined 25,000 to 1,359,000: Typically, but not always,...

by Joseph Joyce The Increasing Debtor Status of the U.S. The Net International Investment Position (NIIP) of a country reflects the difference between foreign assets owned by domestic residents and domestic liabilities held by foreign residents. The difference, positive or negative, determines a country’s status as an international creditor or debtor. The U.S. position, which has been negative for many years, has deteriorated sharply in recent...

“The Grain Deal,” Econospeak by Barkley Rosser Finally we have something sort of hopeful happen in the war in Ukraine that might help alleviate problems it has generated for much of the world.  A deal has been struck to allow Ukrainian grain to be exported from Odesa and two smaller ports near it across the Black Sea and out into the Mediterranean to world markets.  With something like 20 tons of grain, mostly wheat, sitting there for some...

The Eurozone is not an optimum currency area. The Euro as such was a bad idea to begin with. Notably, this was the standard view of US economists. The North American argument (originating in Canada) was that a currency should be used in an area within which people are willing to move to get a job. The original argument was that the US dollar zone and Canadian dollar zone were not optimal areas and that Western Canada should have the same currency as...

I have discovered that there are still people who think that adopting the Euro was a good idea, or at least not a bad idea, or at least not a catastrophe. They seem to have decided that the Greek fiscal tragedy is a minor issue. I will leave it out of the discussion. My view is that the Euro *and* the Stability and Growth Pact have worked together to endanger the project of European integration. There are strange developments of far right,...

There is a lot of noise about the shortage of semiconductors. I am not going to explain it all here. You will find the explanation of manufacture in the articles. It takes weeks to grow wafers and then Fab semi-conductors. Not maintaining orders for semiconductors creates shortage when production starts up again. The purchase of semiconductors has changed since I was in it in 2008 chasing automotive OEM caused shortages. Growing the wafers could...