A big jump in motor vehicle sales highlights a good September for retail sales  – by New Deal democrat  As usual, retail sales is one of my favorite metrics because it tells us so much about the consumer and, indirectly, the labor market and the total economy. Nominally, retail sales rose 0.7% in September, and August’s already good 0.6% was revised upward as well. Since consumer inflation rose 0.4%, real retail sales rose 0.3% – still a...

There have been several interrelated strands in research and practice associated with the dominance of neoliberalism over the last decades. The problem has been that these approaches have been as much enthusiastically promoted by social democratic or progressive forces as they have conservatives. Indeed, conservative political forces have gone down the ‘Trumpian’ far right sink hole and the social democratic parties have moved into the political space vacated – that is, further right than...

Instrumental Variables — The Good and the Bad .[embedded content] Making appropriate extrapolations from (ideal, natural or quasi) experiments to different settings, populations or target systems, is not easy. “It works there” is no evidence for “it will work here.” The causal background assumptions made have to be justified, and without licenses to export, the value of ‘rigorous’ and ‘precise’ methods used when analyzing ‘natural experiments’ is often...

For some reason in this time of crisis both foreign and domestic, I feel the need to remind Angrybear readers of a very simple stylized fact: If the income tax is constitutional and the top rate is less than 69% then non-incumbent Democratic candidates for President have won if and only if they promise to increase taxes on the rich and cut taxes for everyone else. Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, and Joe Biden did that (and Obama and Biden actually kept...

There are good reasons to want to know the cause of an accident, a fire, – or even a crime; finding out the cause of – the reason for – something undesirable happening could help prevent a recurrence.The media seem to think that we, the public, feel that assigning blame is at least as important as determining the cause. Or, perhaps, it is top-down; the media want us to think it is at least as important to find someone to blame as it is to find the...

I am/was hoping to get Brandi Buzzard Frobose’s ok to use her on-the-ranch commentary about the use of mRNA vaccines on livestock. I think she has been too busy to comment back to my email. In any case, I linked to her July 2023 commentary about the use of mRNA in cattle and livestock. As the Iowa State University article states, mRNA is not yet approved for cattle. Testing is going on at Iowa State University and has an end date of September...

The atrocities committed during the Hamas terrorist operation, and the ongoing Israeli response in the Gaza Strip, raise once again the question of political solutions to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the role that other countries can play in trying to promote constructive developments. Can we still believe in the two-state solution, rendered obsolete in the view of many by the extent of the settlements on the one hand, but also, on the other, by a desire to deny the very existence...

Doubtful. Trading range more likely.

The “bearish steepening” and the death of refinancing  – by New Deal democrat If you’ve paid much attention to the financial press in recent days, you have probably read stories that the yield curve – the line that traces the difference in rates in different length bond maturities – has moved towards un-inverting. That is, the situation whereby short term rates are higher than long term rates is moving in the direction of reversing towards a...

For the past few days I have been wondering if Netanyahu has a plan for responding to the Hamas terror killings, or if he’s just temporizing.  More and more, it seems like he is just skating in front of the breaking ice.  If this is right, it’s one more misdeed for which he and his cronies need to be held accountable. Any competent military would have a carefully worked out contingency plan for all-out war against Hamas.  That plan would take into...