Mosler Economics

No recession yet, at least partially due to the increased federal deficit spending on interest payments as the Fed hikes rates: With debt/GDP the rate hikes have had the effect of about $500 billion/year of additional (highly regressive) federal deficit spending:

Maybe stabilizing? Post-Covid bounce followed by a dip from the post-Covid cuts in fiscal spending, but no recession yet: A bit of a slowdown but no recession here yet:

No recession yet: Income and consumption not yet indicating recession:

Back to slow growth: At least so far, the post-Covid spike has been nearly reversed. We’ll see where it goes from here: Post-Covid bounce reversed, still above 50 which signals modest growth:

Sluggish growth but not recession, and no one giving credit to the Fed for hiking rates to increase the deficit and help keep it to a soft landing ;) At least so far it looks to me like a large Covid dip followed by a larger post-Covid bounce followed by a correction to prior levels: More signs of no recession yet:

Permits and starts have fallen off but are still above pre-Covid levels. This particular sector is presumed to be the target of Fed rate hikes. I suspect it is a temporary setback with buyers taking a wait and see attitude, as employment continues to grow: The post-Covid bounce continues with no sign of recession. US energy costs are relatively low which is helping drive the export component: Peter Coy’s NYT article today was about my assertion that rate hikes are adding...

Down from the post-Covid bounce but not in any kind of collapse: More evidence we had a soft landing, cushioned by the rate hikes that supported personal income. And no sign the rate hikes have slowed lending. If anything looks like they support it: Back to pre-Covid levels of GDP growth:

As previously discussed, with oil prices coming down the inflation problem ends. (The month to month change in CPI was 0) And what happens next depends on what oil prices do next. I suspect they go a lot higher as Saudi OSPs remain elevated and speculative long positions taken on when the war in Ukraine started seem to have been sold in anticipation of recession. And while refining margins are down from the highs, they remain elevated, indicating refiners, the only buyers of...

This is about borrowing to spend, indicating positive spending and GDP: Pressures easing here: And this may indicate global spending is holding up: So in short we had Covid deficit spending north of 15% of GDP supporting strong growth, followed by a collapse in deficit spending that resulted in a strong deceleration of growth. However sufficient deficit spending remains (about 5% of GDP) to sustain more modest levels of growth.

This is adding support to employment and output, even as consumption weakens. The relatively low cost of energy should keep it going for a while: No sign of recession here: Still falling short of price increases so obviously not the cause: