Tag Archives: Economic Releases

The slow motion train wreck continues unabated and when employment goes bad, it all goes bad: Highlights On the low side of expectations but not at increasing rates of contraction are the results of ISM’s manufacturing report for October. At 48.3, the index missed Econoday’s consensus by 1 point but gained a 1/2 point from September. New orders improved nearly 2 points in October but, at 49.1, are still under breakeven 50. New export orders, however, improved markedly, up...

With today’s numbers private sector employment continues its rapid deceleration brought on by the collapse in global trade from the tariffs: GDP is also decelerating for the same reasons: Contraction: The collapse continues:

Not a good sign: Oil capex decline: Oil Rig Count Plunges To Lowest Level Since 2017 A Death Sentence For Small Oil & Gas Drillers Below 50 is contraction:

Deep contraction: Highlights The good news is that the trade deficit in goods narrowed sharply in September to a much lower-than-expected $70.4 billion, but the bad news is both exports and imports, in an indication of economic slowing, fell sharply. Exports dropped 1.6 percent in the month for year-on-year contraction of 3.0 percent, showing an oversized 12.6 percent monthly decline in foods, feeds & beverages that will raise talk of issues with China. Exports of autos...

The global collapse continues unabated: Highlights An emphatically weak set of durable goods headlines for September raises the alarm for the health of the manufacturing sector while unexpectedly substantial contraction in capital goods orders deepens specific questions on the outlook for business investment. Durable goods orders fell a monthly 1.1 percent in September, on its face significantly weak but roughly near expectations in contrast to ex-transportation orders which...

Never seen so many charts that look pretty much like this: Much harder to get this cycle means that unemployment and benefits as defined are lower than otherwise, and that the counter cyclical stabilizing effect has been disabled: Most Unemployed People In 2018 Did Not Apply For Unemployment Insurance Benefits from the Bureau of Labor Statistics In 2018, 77 percent of the unemployed people who had worked in the previous 12 months had not applied for unemployment insurance...

Rolling over: Fiscal this tight means they are entirely dependent on exports for growth, and exports have been collapsing with US tariff policy: From the ECB: “Currently extra-euro area imports and exports of goods and services amount to around half of euro area GDP.”

The 5th Deadly Innocent Fraud continues to take its toll:

Fell back this month after last month’s spike from the drop in rates and still looking to me like it’s going nowhere from historically depressed levels, and not population adjusted: Highlights Upward trajectory is the theme of housing starts and permits, in data where September’s headlines don’t always tell the fundamental story. Housing starts came in at a 1.256 million annual rate in September that falls not only well short of expectations but also August which is revised...

Weak income and employment growth tends to coincide with weak retail sales growth, as the global trade collapse continues: Highlights The consumer cooled but not enough to not knock back a still rising trend for retail sales which in September fell an unexpected 0.3 percent. All the breakdowns also came in well below expectations including a 0.1 percent dip when autos (one of September’s weaknesses) are excluded and no change when also excluding gasoline. Perhaps the best...